Market Movement:

  • Bitcoin mining stocks increased by 9.43% on Friday, with all top ten miners ending in the green, including three with double-digit gains
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum are approaching key support levels, with Fundstrat projecting a potential correction to $60,000 for Bitcoin and $1,800-$2,000 for ETH in 2026

Key Events:

  • XRP whales accumulated approximately $642 million worth of 330 million tokens over 48 hours, signaling confidence despite price struggles
  • Hilbert Group acquired Enigma Nordic for $32 million, gaining control of a platform with $5.4 billion in 2025 trading volume and a Sharpe ratio above 3.0
  • Marshall Islands used Stellar to distribute USDM1 tokens as part of a universal basic income pilot, marking a shift from reliance on physical cash and checks

Trading Signals:

  • Whale accumulation of XRP indicates growing large-holder demand, with 330 million XRP added in 48 hours
  • Bitcoin mining stocks’ 9.43% rise suggests strong institutional interest heading into year-end, despite overall market volatility
  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs decreased holdings by 24,000 BTC in Q4 2025, reflecting waning institutional demand and potential downside pressure

Narrative Shifts:

  • Institutional interest in high-frequency trading platforms like Enigma Nordic highlights a focus on short-term, market-neutral strategies amid crypto market maturation
  • The Marshall Islands’ adoption of Stellar-based USDM1 signals a shift toward digital assets for social welfare and financial inclusion
  • Fundstrat’s bearish outlook for 2026 indicates a narrative shift toward caution and defense, with expectations of a correction to $60,000 for Bitcoin and lower for ETH and SOL

Risk Alerts:

  • Market volatility remains high with whale accumulation not yet translating into sustained price gains, indicating potential false signals
  • Regulatory risks persist as U.S. ETFs are net sellers and demand for large holdings diminishes, increasing downside risk
  • The projected correction to $60,000 for Bitcoin and $1,800-$2,000 for ETH signals increased downside risk and potential for further market declines

Opportunities:

  • XRP’s recent whale accumulation suggests potential for a rebound if accumulation continues, especially near current depressed levels
  • The expansion of digital currency use in Marshall Islands presents opportunities in blockchain-based social welfare projects and stablecoins
  • Market-neutral strategies like Enigma Nordic’s trading model could offer profit opportunities amid volatility, provided they generate $40 million in net income for full earn-out

Flows & Positioning

XRP Whales Accumulate $640 Million Amid Price Struggles

XRP has seen a notable shift in investor behavior, with large holders accumulating approximately 330 million tokens valued at around $642 million over the past 48 hours. This accumulation comes as XRP's price struggles to maintain momentum, failing to break through key resistance levels. The on-chain data indicates that addresses holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP are increasing their exposure, suggesting that these whales view current prices as an attractive entry point. Despite the overall market hesitance, this behavior signals renewed demand from significant investors.

Hilbert Group Expands Crypto Trading with $32M Acquisition

Hilbert Group has acquired the high-frequency trading platform Enigma Nordic for $32 million, aiming to enhance its algorithmic cryptocurrency trading capabilities. Enigma reported a trading volume of $5.4 billion, with a Sharpe ratio exceeding 3.0, indicating strong performance metrics. The deal includes performance-based earn-outs tied to Enigma's net income, requiring $40 million to unlock the full earn-out potential. This acquisition positions Hilbert to leverage Enigma's market-neutral strategies, which are designed to capitalize on short-term price inefficiencies in the crypto markets.

Bitcoin Faces Potential $60K Correction as ETF Holdings Decline

Fundstrat has advised clients to prepare for a significant Bitcoin correction to the $60,000-$65,000 range by the first half of 2026. This forecast aligns with macro indicators suggesting potential bear-market bottoms, as Bitcoin's price remains under pressure below $100,000. Additionally, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reportedly become net sellers in Q4 2025, with holdings decreasing by 24,000 BTC. This decline in institutional demand reflects a broader trend of diminishing interest, further complicating Bitcoin's price recovery prospects.

XRP Price Dynamics: Key Support Levels and Market Sentiment

XRP's price is currently attempting to stabilize around $1.94 after a sharp sell-off, with critical support identified between $1.82 and $1.87. Analysts suggest that if inflows continue, XRP could face further declines toward the $1.50-$1.66 range, indicating a bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. The ongoing pressure on XRP is compounded by macroeconomic factors and a broader rotation away from higher-beta crypto assets. Despite this, XRP's fundamentals, including its role in cross-border payments, continue to attract institutional interest, hinting at a potential long-term recovery.

Corporate & Capital Markets

Bitcoin Mining Stocks Climb 9.43% on Friday

The market cap of bitcoin mining stocks climbed 9.43% on Friday, finishing the session with every one of the top ten publicly traded miners by market value in the green, including three names that logged double-digit advances.

Macro & Policy

Coalition of Crypto Firms Opposes Banking Lobby on Stablecoin Yields

A coalition of over 125 cryptocurrency companies and advocacy groups, including major players like Coinbase, Gemini, and Kraken, has mobilized against U.S. banking lobbyists. This initiative arises from concerns over the GENIUS Act, which prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying dividends. Currently, a loophole allows third-party platforms to pass stablecoin yields to users, prompting traditional banks to lobby for its closure, arguing it leads to regulatory arbitrage.

Marshall Islands Implement Crypto for Universal Basic Income

The Republic of the Marshall Islands has begun utilizing digital assets for its universal basic income program. Last month, citizens received USDM1, a token based on the Stellar blockchain, as part of this initiative. This move reflects a shift towards digital financial solutions as the nation seeks to enhance access to financial services, moving away from reliance on physical cash.

Euro Stablecoins Reach $1 Billion Amid Limited Hype

Euro stablecoins have achieved a significant milestone, surpassing $1 billion in market capitalization. This growth has been attributed to record highs in USDC cross-chain transfers, indicating a transaction-driven expansion within the stablecoin sector. The overall stablecoin market is currently valued at approximately $288 billion, highlighting the increasing importance of stablecoins in the broader cryptocurrency landscape.

Security & Incidents

$50 Million Loss from Address Poisoning Scam

A crypto user lost nearly $50 million in USDT to an address poisoning scam after copying a fraudulent wallet address from their transaction history, according to blockchain security firm SlowMist. The victim transferred 49,999,950 USDT to an attacker-controlled address that closely mimicked their intended destination, with matching first three and last four characters. The stolen funds were quickly converted to ETH, distributed across multiple wallets, and partially funneled through Tornado Cash mixer. The victim’s wallet had been active for approximately 2 years and was primarily used for USDT transfers, with the compromised funds withdrawn from Binance shortly before the poisoned transfer.

The incident occurred amid a broader security crisis in the cryptocurrency industry, which has now lost nearly $90 billion to hacks and exploits since its inception. November alone saw over $276 million stolen, pushing 2025 losses beyond $9.1 billion, meaning roughly 10% of all historical crypto losses have occurred within the past 12 months.

Brooklyn Man Charged with Stealing $16 Million from Coinbase Users

A 23-year-old Brooklyn resident has been charged with stealing roughly $16 million in cryptocurrency from around 100 Coinbase users through an alleged phishing and social engineering scheme, prosecutors said. Ronald Spektor posed as a Coinbase representative and contacted victims under the pretense that their digital assets were at immediate risk, pressuring users into transferring cryptocurrency to wallets under his control. Prosecutors stated that Spektor operated online under the alias “lolimfeelingevil” and relied on classic social engineering tactics rather than technical exploits. Authorities seized approximately $105,000 in cash and about $400,000 in digital assets as part of the investigation, which followed a year-long probe by the Brooklyn District Attorney’s Office.

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