Market Movement:

  • Bitcoin remains around $93,609, up 0.9%, with a recent high near $96,250 risking $3 billion in short liquidation if it rises 3%.
  • Ethereum has surged 5.9% to $3,215, breaking above $3,200, with Bitcoin's recent 5.7% jump marking its fifth best daily return of the year.
  • Total crypto market cap increased by 1.8% to $3.27 trillion, with Bitcoin's price near key levels ahead of the Fed rate decision.

Key Events:

  • Roughly $6 billion in Bitcoin positions are at risk of liquidation, including $3 billion in shorts if Bitcoin hits $96,250.
  • BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $58.5 million on Tuesday, with IBIT gaining $120 million.
  • Binance appointed Yi He as co-CEO alongside Richard Teng during Binance Blockchain Week; Ukrainian police arrested two suspects for crypto-related murder, seizing a large amount of cash and crypto wallets.

Trading Signals:

  • Open interest in Bitcoin derivatives is falling, while perpetual CVD is rising, indicating short-covering rather than bullish conviction.
  • US jobless claims data are being closely watched, with expectations that a positive report could support Bitcoin’s upward move toward $103,000.

Narrative Shifts:

  • Market sentiment is shifting towards expectations of a Fed rate cut, with an 89% probability of a December rate reduction, boosting bullish outlooks.

Risk Alerts:

  • Significant short positions ($3 billion in shorts) and weak spot demand, with order-book depth turning negative since Dec. 2, highlight potential volatility.
  • Market remains cautious ahead of the Fed’s decision, with traders wary of a "fake breakout" and macroeconomic uncertainties.
  • Weak US economic prints reinforce expectations of a rate cut, but persistent profit-taking and low new address activity suggest underlying demand risks.

Opportunities:

  • Potential for Bitcoin to reach $103,000 if a decisive breakout occurs, supported by US jobless data and macroeconomic tailwinds.

Flows & Positioning

Bitcoin Surges Above $93K Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation

Bitcoin has rebounded sharply, climbing above $93,000 as traders anticipate a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. This surge comes as approximately $3 billion in short positions are at risk of liquidation if Bitcoin rises just 3% to $96,250, highlighting the precarious positioning of many traders ahead of the Fed's decision. With a significant $19 billion in leveraged positions recently flushed from the market, analysts are noting signs of "seller exhaustion," which could support further price increases. The current market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with Bitcoin's price showing resilience despite previous volatility.

Institutional Interest Fuels ETF Activity with $41M in LINK ETF

The launch of the Grayscale Chainlink Trust ETF, which attracted approximately $41.5 million on its first day, reflects growing institutional demand for altcoins beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. This ETF marks a significant milestone in the expansion of cryptocurrency investment products, potentially paving the way for further institutional adoption. Additionally, XRP ETFs have seen positive inflows for 11 consecutive days, with assets under management surging to $844 million. This trend indicates a robust institutional appetite for cryptocurrency exposure, particularly as the market begins to recover from recent downturns.

Key Price Levels and Technical Indicators for Bitcoin and XRP

Bitcoin is currently testing critical resistance levels, with a break above $93,321 potentially triggering the liquidation of $570 million in short positions. The asset's recent price movements suggest a stabilization phase, with traders eyeing the $103,000 supply zone as a target for future gains. Meanwhile, XRP is showing signs of strength, trading at $2.17 with a potential rally target of $2.50. The asset's price has been buoyed by strong ETF inflows and positive technical indicators, suggesting a bullish outlook if it can break above key resistance levels.

Market Implications: Institutional Adoption and Recovery Prospects

The convergence of institutional interest and favorable macroeconomic conditions could signal a new phase for the cryptocurrency market. As traditional finance increasingly integrates digital assets, the potential for sustained recovery in Bitcoin and altcoins appears promising. With the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision likely to influence market sentiment, traders are positioned for volatility. The combination of institutional ETF activity and technical recovery signals could set the stage for significant price movements in the coming weeks.

Corporate & Capital Markets

Axis Raises $5 Million to Launch Onchain Yield Protocol

Axis has raised $5 million in a funding round led by Galaxy Ventures to launch its onchain yield protocol for USD, bitcoin, and gold. The company has also deployed $100 million in private capital through its closed beta to stress-test its delta-neutral arbitrage engine.

Ostium Secures $24 Million for Decentralized Perpetuals Exchange

Ostium, a protocol focused on real-world assets (RWAs), has raised $24 million to scale its decentralized perpetuals exchange beyond U.S. markets.

Binance Appoints Yi He as Co-CEO

Binance has appointed co-founder Yi He as the new co-CEO alongside Richard Teng. This announcement was made during Binance Blockchain Week.

Ecosystem Movers

Launch of SKR Token in January

Solana Mobile is set to launch its native SKR token in January 2024, with a total supply capped at 10 billion tokens. This token is integral to the Solana mobile ecosystem, specifically designed to enhance control, economics, incentives, and ownership within the platform. The introduction of SKR is anticipated to bolster user engagement and drive adoption of the Seeker phone, a device aimed at integrating mobile technology with blockchain capabilities.

Implications for Ecosystem Growth

The SKR token's launch is a strategic move by Solana Mobile to expand its ecosystem and enhance user interaction. By tying the token to the Seeker phone, Solana aims to create a more integrated experience for users, potentially leading to increased adoption rates. This initiative reflects a broader trend in the crypto space where mobile technology is increasingly intertwined with blockchain, suggesting a growing market for mobile-centric blockchain applications.

On-Chain & Network

Ethereum Activates Fusaka Upgrade, Enhancing Throughput and Gas Limit

Ethereum has successfully activated the Fusaka upgrade on its mainnet, which took place on December 3 at 22:04 UTC. This upgrade introduces PeerDAS technology, allowing for up to 8x data throughput for rollups and increasing the gas limit from 45 million to 60 million units. Currently, Ethereum processes between 1.3 and 1.8 million transactions daily, and the upgrade is expected to enhance the network's performance significantly, especially for Layer 2 solutions and rollups.

Ethereum's Value Locked in DeFi and Transaction Metrics

As of the latest reports, Ethereum holds over $73 billion in value locked in decentralized finance (DeFi) applications. The Fusaka upgrade is anticipated to further bolster this figure by improving transaction capabilities and user experience through enhanced rollup economics.

Market Rebounds with Ethereum Leading the Charge

Following the Fusaka upgrade, Ethereum's price surged past the critical $3,200 resistance level, contributing to a broader market rebound. DeFi tokens experienced gains exceeding 5%, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment, although Bitcoin's selling pressure remains a concern as new addresses are holding fewer coins.

Macro & Policy

SEC Blocks High-Leverage Crypto ETFs Amid Regulatory Scrutiny

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has halted the launch of several proposed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that aimed to deliver three to five times the daily performance of cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ether. The SEC's intervention stems from concerns that these funds violate Rule 18f-4 under the Investment Company Act of 1940, which restricts a fund's value-at-risk exposure to 200% of its reference benchmark. ProShares, one of the firms affected, has been instructed to either amend its filings or withdraw them entirely, resulting in the immediate retraction of several applications for 3x leveraged crypto ETFs, including those linked to Solana and XRP. This regulatory move indicates a tightening stance by the SEC on high-risk financial products in the crypto space, as no 5x leveraged ETFs have ever been approved in the U.S. and even 3x products face stringent limits.

Institutional Interest in Crypto Grows with Legislative Developments

At the DealBook Summit, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink acknowledged the evolving utility of Bitcoin, while Coinbase's Brian Armstrong revealed that the exchange is conducting pilot programs with major U.S. banks focused on stablecoin and crypto trading. Armstrong highlighted that recent legislative efforts regarding stablecoins and market structure are indicative of a significant shift in the policy landscape, suggesting that 2025 could be a pivotal year for crypto regulation. This growing institutional interest is seen as a driving force behind the mainstream integration of digital assets into the financial system.

UK Advances Crypto Property Law Amid Broader Regulatory Changes

The UK has passed a new law concerning crypto property, which is expected to enhance the legal framework surrounding digital assets in the country. This development aligns with a broader trend of regulatory evolution in various jurisdictions as they seek to adapt to the growing significance of cryptocurrencies. The implications of this law could facilitate clearer ownership rights and foster greater confidence among investors in the UK crypto market.

Security & Incidents

Ukrainian Police Arrest Two in Alleged Crypto Extortion Murder

Two Ukrainian nationals have been arrested for the torture and murder of a 21-year-old student in Vienna whose body was found burned beyond recognition in his Mercedes following a violent assault that left his crypto wallet drained. The victim's teeth were allegedly knocked out before he was doused with gasoline and set on fire, suffocating on his own blood before the flames consumed him. Police detected withdrawals from the victim's crypto wallet and seized a large amount of cash from the suspects, though the motive remains officially unclear.

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