Market Movement:

  • Bitcoin is trading at $90,733.75, down 0.85% in the past 24 hours, with a market cap above $1.81 trillion.
  • XRP is trading at $2.22, with a market cap of $133.7 billion and a 24-hour trading volume above $3.5 billion.

Key Events:

  • BlackRock reported $2.34 billion in November outflows from IBIT, stating this is a normal occurrence.
  • Upbit uncovered a wallet flaw while investigating a $30 million hack, which drained approximately 44.5 billion won.

Trading Signals:

  • Bitcoin's trading volume is reported at $53.3 billion.
  • XRP's price is pressing into a descending trendline, forming a symmetrical triangle pattern.

Narrative Shifts:

  • Bitcoin is down more than 17% over the past 30 days, indicating a weakening sentiment in the market.
  • The market is beginning to resemble the extreme risk-reward environment seen during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Risk Alerts:

  • Upbit's recent hack resulted in a loss totaling an estimated $30 million, raising concerns over exchange security.
  • Bitcoin's current setup is described as pricing in a recessionary growth environment, reflecting bearish sentiment.

Opportunities:

  • A close above $98K for Bitcoin could reopen the path toward $103K and $108K, indicating potential bullish movement.
  • XRP's price prediction suggests that a confirmed close above $2.22 could unlock a breakout toward $2.38, $2.57, and $2.78.

Flows & Positioning

BlackRock Reports $2.34B Outflows from IBIT in November

BlackRock's recent announcement highlights a significant outflow of $2.34 billion from its IBIT ETF in November, which the firm describes as "perfectly normal." This follows a period where demand for the ETF had previously surged, pushing its assets close to $100 billion. This outflow indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment, as capital appears to be exiting rather than entering the ETF. Such movements can reflect broader market trends and investor confidence in the crypto space.

XRP and Bitcoin Price Levels Under Scrutiny

XRP is currently trading at $2.22, with bulls aiming for a weekly close above this level to confirm a major breakout. A successful close could propel XRP toward resistance levels of $2.38, $2.57, and $2.78, signaling a potential upward momentum shift. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading at $90,733.75, down 0.85% in the last 24 hours, with a market cap exceeding $1.81 trillion. The cryptocurrency is testing key support at $91,651, and a close above $98K could open pathways toward $103K and $108K, indicating critical resistance levels that traders are monitoring closely.

Whale Movements and ETF Inflows Signal Market Dynamics

Recent whale activity has seen a Bitcoin whale selling 500 BTC at a loss of $10.5 million, raising concerns about potential breaches of the $90K support level. This selling pressure could influence market sentiment, especially as traders watch for rebounds toward $92,942 and $100,131. On the institutional front, spot Bitcoin ETFs have ended a four-week outflow streak with $70 million in weekly inflows. This shift indicates a renewed interest from investors, potentially signaling a bottoming phase for Bitcoin as market dynamics evolve.

Market Outlook Amidst $15B Options Expiry

The recent $15 billion options expiry for Bitcoin and Ethereum has created a complex market environment, leaving the bottom in limbo. This expiry could reset market dynamics, with analysts suggesting that Bitcoin's resilience may be tested in the coming days. As the crypto market closed November down $600 billion despite a late surge, the implications of these developments could shape trading strategies. Investors are closely monitoring these factors as they assess potential recovery paths for major cryptocurrencies.

On-Chain & Network

Upbit Identifies and Fixes Critical Wallet Flaw During $30M Hack Investigation

Upbit, South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, has discovered a significant vulnerability in its internal wallet system while probing a recent $30 million hack. The flaw, which could have allowed attackers to infer private keys from publicly available blockchain data, was addressed by Upbit's engineers. The issue was linked to how the wallet software generated cryptographic signatures, potentially leading to weak or predictable signing data. This could have enabled a sophisticated attacker to reconstruct wallet keys by analyzing historical transactions.

In response to the breach, Upbit halted all withdrawals and deposits, transferring assets to cold storage while initiating forensic reviews. The hack resulted in losses totaling approximately 44.5 billion won ($30 million), with around 38.6 billion won ($26 million) attributed to customer holdings. The exchange has since frozen about 2.3 billion won of the stolen funds and pledged full reimbursement to affected users.

Arthur Hayes Predicts Ethereum and Solana's Long-Term Dominance

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, has expressed confidence that Ethereum and Solana will be the primary layer-1 blockchains to survive in the long term, dismissing the viability of most alternative networks. He emphasizes Ethereum's critical role in institutional adoption, suggesting that it will be a key player for investors aiming to achieve their Web3 objectives. Hayes anticipates a market consolidation around a select few dominant networks, with Ethereum and Solana leading the charge.

Irys Airdrop Under Scrutiny for Centralization Concerns

The Irys blockchain's recent airdrop has raised alarms after a single entity acquired approximately 20% of the total allocation. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps reported that around 900 wallets were involved in the airdrop, with many showing no prior on-chain activity, indicating potential coordinated behavior rather than organic participation. Following the distribution, a significant number of these wallets began consolidating their assets, with about 500 transferring their IRYS tokens to intermediary addresses before moving them to Bitget, a centralized exchange.

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