Market Movement:

  • Bitcoin fell to lows not seen since early summer, with heavy selling pressure near $107,000.
  • Ethereum (ETH) trades at $3,473 after gaining 1.69% today, opening at $3,415.8.

Key Events:

  • Exodus reported a revenue rise of 51% to $30.3 million, with exchange-provider volume reaching $1.75 billion in the third quarter.
  • Companies added 14,447 BTC in October, the smallest monthly increase of 2025, bringing total tracked holdings to 4.05 million BTC, worth roughly $444 billion.

Trading Signals:

  • Whale accumulation for Ethereum reached $6.4 billion recently, indicating strong fundamentals despite bearish signals.
  • Exodus ended the period with $314.7 million in digital and liquid assets, including 2,123 BTC and 2,770 ETH.

Narrative Shifts:

  • Corporate appetite for Bitcoin cooled, with firms offloading only 39 BTC, indicating a shift toward consolidation and capital-efficiency tools.
  • The crypto market is losing steam, prompting traders to eye alternative assets as Bitcoin's price declines.

Risk Alerts:

  • Brazil's central bank proposed new rules to target illegal stablecoin use, raising regulatory concerns in the crypto space.
  • VisionSys AI shares crashed more than 77% amid news of a direct offering, highlighting volatility risks in related sectors.

Opportunities:

  • The DeFi sector is being highlighted as a viable form of savings, indicating potential growth in decentralized finance.
  • The total tracked Bitcoin holdings reached a record high, suggesting a defensive stance across balance sheets may present investment opportunities.

Flows & Positioning

Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure Near $107K Resistance

Bitcoin's price has encountered significant selling pressure around the $107,000 mark, as bulls attempted to initiate a recovery. This resistance level has proven challenging, leading to a sell-off that has affected many altcoins as well, which retreated from their respective resistance points. As of the latest reports, Bitcoin is trading near $102,100, with a potential breakout target set at $104,000. However, mixed signals from the market suggest traders should remain cautious, particularly with the current volatility and external economic pressures.

Institutional Activity: Exodus Reports Strong Q3 Amid Bitcoin Slowdown

Exodus Movement, a NYSE-listed exchange provider, reported a 51% year-over-year revenue increase to $30.3 million for Q3, driven by higher swap activity and exchange-provider volume reaching $1.75 billion. This comes despite a slowdown in corporate Bitcoin buying, with companies adding only 14,447 BTC in October, the smallest increase of 2025. Exodus ended the quarter with $314.7 million in digital and liquid assets, including 2,123 BTC and 2,770 ETH. This highlights a trend where firms are leaning more on Bitcoin-driven activities while overall corporate accumulation appears to be cooling.

Whale Accumulation and Price Levels: Ethereum's Mixed Signals

Ethereum (ETH) is currently trading at $3,473 after a modest gain of 1.69%. Despite recent whale accumulation of $6.4 billion, technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook, with traders eyeing potential downside risks. The price needs to break above $3,700 to regain bullish momentum. Additionally, Ethereum whales have purchased over $350 million in ETH during the recent market pullback, indicating institutional accumulation.

This activity suggests that large investors are positioning themselves for a potential rebound, despite the current market uncertainty.

Market Outlook: Corporate Bitcoin Holdings Reach Record High

Corporate Bitcoin holdings have reached a record high of 4.05 million BTC, valued at approximately $444 billion. However, the recent slowdown in corporate buying, with only 14,447 BTC added in October, indicates a shift towards consolidation and capital efficiency rather than aggressive accumulation. As the market stabilizes after a month-long correction, analysts suggest that this could set the stage for a renewed bullish trend as we approach the New Year. The interplay between corporate strategies and market sentiment will be crucial in determining Bitcoin's trajectory moving forward.

Corporate & Capital Markets

Japan Exchange Group Considers Stricter Rules for Crypto Holdings

Japan Exchange Group is weighing new measures to curb the growth of listed digital-asset treasury companies, as losses from the recent hoarding boom raise investor protection concerns. The Tokyo Stock Exchange operator is considering stricter use of its backdoor listing rules and may require fresh audits for companies shifting into large crypto positions. For two months, three listed firms paused plans to start buying cryptocurrencies after pushback from JPX, which indicated that their fundraising could be limited if they pursued a strategy centered on acquiring crypto. Shares of crypto-hoarding names have tumbled after surging earlier this year, leaving retail buyers with steep paper losses.

Strategy Inc., which built a Bitcoin trove worth about $66 billion, has seen its stock roughly halve since mid-July. Japan now counts 14 public Bitcoin buyers, the most in Asia, according to industry trackers.

Polymarket Becomes Yahoo Finance's Exclusive Prediction Market Provider

Polymarket announced that its data will be exclusively shown on Yahoo Finance, expanding elements of its product to potentially more people. The announcement was made on X, where Polymarket stated it had become Yahoo Finance’s “exclusive prediction market partner.”

Ecosystem Movers

Aerodrome's Upgrade Suite and Expansion

Aerodrome, a leading decentralized exchange (DEX) on the Base network, has launched an upgrade suite that includes a central liquidity hub named Aero. This new hub aims to facilitate additional Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) extensions beyond its current integrations with Base and Optimism. The upgrade is expected to enhance liquidity and trading efficiency across its platform, potentially attracting more users and liquidity providers to the ecosystem. In conjunction with the Aero launch, Aerodrome is also expanding its reach to Ethereum and Circle’s Arc, which could significantly broaden its user base and operational capabilities.

This strategic move aligns with the growing trend of cross-chain interoperability, allowing users to access a wider array of assets and services within the decentralized finance (DeFi) space. Such expansions are crucial for maintaining competitive advantages in the rapidly evolving crypto market, where user experience and liquidity are paramount.

On-Chain & Network

JPMorgan Launches JPM Coin on Coinbase's Base Network

JPMorgan has introduced its dollar deposit token, JPM Coin (JPMD), on Coinbase's Base network, marking a significant step in the bank's digital asset strategy. This deployment allows institutional clients to conduct transactions on the Ethereum layer-2 network, facilitating instant transactions around the clock, a notable improvement over traditional methods that can take multiple business days. The initiative is part of JPMorgan's broader efforts to expand into digital assets, with future plans to include other currencies and blockchains pending regulatory approval.

Coinbase's New Token Sale Platform Signals ICO Revival

Coinbase has launched a new token sale platform aimed at reviving the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) model under strict compliance and regulation. This platform, which reopened token sales for U.S. investors for the first time since 2018, will debut with the Monad token, allowing investors to submit bids in USD Coin (USDC). The platform's algorithm prioritizes smaller bids to promote wider distribution, addressing long-standing issues in traditional finance regarding retail investor access to early-stage opportunities. This structured approach could redefine capital formation in the crypto space by 2026.

Improvements in DeFi Security and Viability

Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum, has highlighted significant advancements in the security of decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms, stating that users can now expect a "night and day difference" in security levels compared to previous iterations. This enhancement in security is crucial for the broader adoption of DeFi as a viable savings option, indicating a maturation of the ecosystem that could attract more users and capital.

New Protocol Aims to Enhance Cross-Chain DeFi

A new protocol built on the Sui blockchain is set to unlock Bitcoin's idle liquidity while eliminating the risks associated with wrapped tokens. This development could significantly enhance cross-chain decentralized finance (DeFi) by providing a trustless mechanism for asset transfers across different blockchains, thereby improving liquidity and user confidence in cross-chain transactions.

Macro & Policy

Dubai Court Freezes $456 Million in TrueUSD Fraud Case

A Dubai court has imposed a worldwide freeze on $456 million in assets linked to the alleged misappropriation of TrueUSD (TUSD) stablecoin reserves. The injunction targets Dubai-based Aria Commodities DMCC, which allegedly received the funds instead of the designated reserve account. The order was issued on October 17, 2023, by H.E. Justice Michael Black KC of the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Digital Economy Court, and it prohibits Aria Commodities from transferring or dealing with any assets valued at up to $456 million until further notice from the court. This ruling is part of an ongoing dispute involving Techteryx Ltd, the operator of TrueUSD, which has faced challenges in redeeming a significant portion of its US dollar reserves managed by First Digital Trust.

Investigations revealed that these funds were allegedly redirected to Aria Commodities DMCC instead of being held in the proper reserve account in the Cayman Islands.

Kyrgyzstan Launches Gold-Backed Dollar Stablecoin

Kyrgyzstan has launched a stablecoin, USDKG, which is pegged to the US dollar but backed by physical gold reserves. The initial issuance of this stablecoin is valued at over $50 million. Analysts suggest that this move could undermine the US dollar's dominance and serve as a geopolitical test case for nations looking to circumvent American sanctions. This development marks a significant innovation in the stablecoin sector, as it is the first stablecoin globally to be backed by gold reserves, potentially influencing how other countries approach stablecoin issuance and their relationship with the US dollar.

Brazil Targets Illegal Use of Bitcoin and Stablecoins

Brazil's central bank has proposed new regulations aimed at cracking down on the illegal use of cryptocurrencies, particularly stablecoins. A new rule would classify any purchase, sale, or exchange of virtual assets pegged to fiat currency as a foreign exchange operation, thereby subjecting them to stricter oversight. Additionally, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has sent a bill to Congress that would allow for the seizure of virtual assets and other properties linked to illegal activities. This regulatory push reflects growing concerns from Brazilian authorities regarding the use of cryptocurrencies in criminal activities and aims to enhance the legal framework surrounding digital assets in the country.

UK Regulators to Gain Greater Powers Over Cybersecurity Failures

UK regulators are set to receive enhanced powers to address cybersecurity failures, which could have implications for the crypto sector as well. This move is part of a broader initiative to strengthen regulatory oversight in the digital economy, ensuring that firms are held accountable for cybersecurity incidents that may affect consumers and the financial system.

Security & Incidents

Prosecutors Request Retrial for MEV Bot Brothers

After a jury deadlocked on a verdict for two brothers accused of perpetrating a $25 million exploit on Ethereum, prosecutors are looking to retry them in 2026.

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