Market Movement:

  • Ethereum rises 2.84% to $3,449.76; recent low was approximately $3,293, down 26% in the past month
  • Zcash drops 7.23% to $575.77 after surging to nearly $735 earlier, with a recent settlement at $666

Key Events:

  • Zcash surged 33% on Friday, triggering $51 million in short liquidations and reaching nearly $735, with recent price at $666
  • Trump Media & Technology Group posted a $54.8 million loss in Q3 2025, with $28.7 million from Bitcoin holdings, despite investing $2 billion in Bitcoin earlier this year

Trading Signals:

  • Zcash liquidations of over $51 million highlight extreme short-term volatility and speculative activity in privacy coins
  • Balancer issues a warning to hackers behind a $100M+ exploit, signaling ongoing security risks in DeFi protocols

Narrative Shifts:

  • Growing privacy concerns about Bitcoin’s centralization boost Zcash’s tenfold increase in five weeks, nearing an 8-year high
  • Sector rotation observed with traditional stocks affected by AI concerns, yet crypto remains oversold, with potential for vigorous recovery by year-end
  • Market focus on potential 100x gains with presale tokens like PEPENODE, which offers 600% annual yields and virtual mining features

Risk Alerts:

  • High volatility indicated by Zcash’s 33% surge and $51 million liquidations, signaling unstable short-term sentiment
  • Regulatory risks heightened by the arrest of a Bitcoin privacy app developer and ongoing security breaches like the $100M exploit on Balancer
  • Market vulnerability as Bitcoin tests support levels around $100,000, with a shallow bounce raising the risk of breakdown

Opportunities:

  • Potential for significant rebounds in major tokens, with oversold conditions suggesting vigorous recovery by year-end
  • Presale tokens like PEPENODE with 600% annual yields and virtual mining features offer high-profit potential
  • Institutional accumulation, exemplified by American Bitcoin’s treasury growth to $415 million, indicates increasing mainstream acceptance

Flows & Positioning

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Surge Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin ETFs recorded a significant turnaround with $239.9 million in net inflows, breaking a six-day outflow streak that had seen over $2 billion withdrawn from these products. This influx was led by BlackRock’s IBIT, which attracted $112.4 million, indicating renewed investor interest despite recent market turbulence. The positive ETF flows come as Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating around the critical $100,000 support level. Analysts suggest that this could signal a stabilization phase for Bitcoin, potentially setting the stage for a recovery rally if the support holds strong.

Whale Activity and Price Movements Test $100K Support

Bitcoin has recently dipped below the $100,000 mark, with a notable 9.3% decline from the previous week. This drop raised concerns about the sustainability of the $100,000 support level, especially as U.S. investors reportedly dumped $700 million in Bitcoin, further testing market confidence. Additionally, whale movements have been significant, with nearly 30,000 BTC being accumulated during this period. This accumulation could indicate that larger investors are positioning themselves for a potential rebound, which may provide some support for Bitcoin's price in the near term.

Institutional Investments Reflect Confidence in Bitcoin

Strategy Inc. has successfully raised €620 million ($715 million) through a preferred stock offering aimed at expanding its Bitcoin holdings. This upsized offering, which exceeded initial expectations, underscores the growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Moreover, American Bitcoin, backed by Donald Trump’s sons, has increased its Bitcoin treasury to 4,004 BTC, valued at approximately $415 million. This move positions the firm as the 25th largest Bitcoin treasury, reflecting a trend of corporate entities bolstering their digital asset portfolios.

Zcash's Surge and Market Dynamics

Zcash has experienced a remarkable price surge of 33%, reaching nearly $735, driven by increased privacy concerns surrounding Bitcoin. This rally has triggered significant short liquidations, indicating a volatile trading environment as investors react to shifting market sentiments. The growing interest in privacy coins like Zcash suggests a potential shift in investor focus, particularly as regulatory scrutiny on Bitcoin intensifies. Analysts are watching closely to see if Zcash can maintain its momentum and possibly challenge Bitcoin's dominance in the market.

Corporate & Capital Markets

Bitcoin Drives Nearly a Third of Q3 Revenue for Block

Jack Dorsey’s Block reported that Bitcoin accounted for nearly a third of its Q3 revenue. This highlights the significant role of cryptocurrency in the company's financial performance.

Kazakhstan to Launch $1 Billion Crypto Reserve

Kazakhstan is set to launch a $1 billion crypto reserve, marking a significant move in the country's approach to cryptocurrency and digital assets.

Crypto Stocks Slide Amid Market Concerns

Crypto stocks, including Coinbase, Block, and Robinhood, experienced a downturn as macro fears, government shutdown jitters, and the fallout from October's $19 billion liquidation affected investor sentiment.

Macro & Policy

Kazakhstan to Establish $1 Billion Crypto Reserve Fund by 2026

Kazakhstan is set to launch a national cryptocurrency reserve fund valued between $500 million and $1 billion by early 2026. This initiative represents a significant move towards integrating digital assets into a state-managed investment portfolio, although the fund will avoid direct exposure to cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Central Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov emphasized a cautious approach, indicating that the fund will invest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and shares of companies associated with digital currencies instead of holding cryptocurrencies directly. This strategy aims to capture the potential upside of the crypto industry while mitigating volatility risks linked to token holdings.

Funding Sources for the Crypto Reserve Fund

The fund will be financed through assets that have been seized or repatriated from abroad, along with proceeds from state-backed crypto mining operations. This approach is part of Kazakhstan's broader strategy to recover capital and modernize its financial reserves. The government is also contemplating converting portions of its sovereign wealth and gold holdings into digital assets, further indicating the rise of cryptocurrencies as a state-level asset class.

Management and Operational Framework

The crypto reserve fund will be managed through a state investment vehicle operating under the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), which has already attracted several international crypto firms since the country legalized and regulated certain aspects of digital asset trading and mining in 2022. There are plans to potentially involve foreign partners in the management or co-investment of the fund once it becomes operational.

Security & Incidents

Garden Finance Exploit Results in $10.8 Million Hack

The attacker behind Garden Finance’s $10.8 million exploit is now actively laundering stolen funds. Security firm CertiK revealed today that the hacker transferred $6.65 million worth of cryptocurrency to Tornado Cash.

Mistrial in $25 Million Ethereum ‘Sandwich Bot’ Case

After 18 tense days in a Manhattan federal courtroom, the high-profile U.S. v. Peraire-Bueno trial has ended in a mistrial. Judge Jessica G.L. Clarke declared the outcome late Friday, citing a deadlocked jury unable to reach a unanimous verdict on charges of wire fraud and money laundering. The case centered on two MIT-educated brothers, Benjamin and Noah Peraire-Bueno, accused of orchestrating an exploit on Ethereum’s Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) system.

Balancer Issues Warning to Hacker Over $100 Million Exploit

The DAO behind the exchange issued an onchain warning to those responsible for a major exploit: Return the funds for a bounty or face the consequences.

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