Market Movement:

  • Major levels: Bitcoin defended the $107,000 level; BlackRock’s IBIT ETF experienced a $290.88 million outflow on October 30
  • Overall market trend shows mixed movement with notable outflows in Bitcoin ETFs and some altcoins gaining momentum

Key Events:

  • Tether reported a $10 billion profit in 2025’s first three quarters, surpassing Bank of America and nearing Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley earnings
  • BlackRock’s IBIT ETF had a single-day outflow of $290.88 million, the largest since early August, contributing to a total weekly outflow of $388.43 million

Trading Signals:

  • ETF outflows: BlackRock’s IBIT shed $290.88 million on October 30, with total ETF outflows of $388.43 million for the week
  • Volume analysis: Coin prices show modest daily percentage changes, with ZEC up 13.66%, LTC up 4.78%, and WBT up 7.31% indicating varied trader activity
  • Whale movements: Not explicitly detailed, but ETF outflows and large institutional redemptions suggest increased short-term selling pressure

Narrative Shifts:

  • Growing institutional confidence in stablecoins: Tether’s $10 billion profit highlights strong backing and potential for increased stablecoin adoption
  • Regulatory focus shifting: Global regulators are considering overhauls to banking rules on stablecoins, reflecting a theme of evolving compliance standards
  • Market rotation: Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs contrast with altcoin gains, indicating sector rotation towards altcoins and stablecoins

Risk Alerts:

  • Volatility risk: ETF outflows and large redemptions signal short-term uncertainty and potential price volatility in Bitcoin and related assets
  • Regulatory threats: Ongoing discussions on banking standards and stablecoin regulation pose systemic risks to market stability
  • Market threats: Defending key levels like $107,000 for Bitcoin remains critical; net outflows increase the risk of breakdown in near term

Opportunities:

  • Stablecoin growth: Tether’s $10 billion profit and USDT backing suggest strong stability and potential for further stablecoin expansion
  • Sector rotation: Increased altcoin performance (e.g., ZEC +13.66%, LTC +4.78%) indicates opportunities in altcoin investments and niche sectors
  • Institutional interest: Despite ETF outflows, continued institutional activity in crypto assets and regulatory developments present long-term growth potential

Flows & Positioning

Bitcoin Faces $388M in ETF Outflows Amid Price Volatility

Bitcoin's price has recently dipped below the critical $110,000 level, reflecting a broader market trend of increasing selling pressure. This decline is compounded by significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, totaling approximately $388 million on October 30, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing $290 million to this figure. Analysts suggest that the current market sentiment is cautious, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and reduced institutional confidence. As Bitcoin consolidates around $110,162, technical indicators show that support is holding near $106,300, while resistance is capped at $112,000.

The market is currently exhibiting a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision and potential volatility ahead as traders brace for a breakout in either direction.

Tether Reports $10B Profit and $135B in US Treasuries

Tether has announced a remarkable year-to-date profit exceeding $10 billion, alongside a substantial $135 billion exposure to U.S. Treasuries. This financial attestation highlights Tether's growing influence in the crypto market, positioning it as the 17th largest holder of U.S. government debt, surpassing countries like South Korea. The company also holds nearly $13 billion in precious metals and $10 billion in Bitcoin, showcasing a diverse asset portfolio. The increase in Tether's reserves and profits underscores the stablecoin's critical role in the crypto ecosystem, especially amid ongoing market volatility.

This financial strength may enhance investor confidence in USDT as a reliable digital dollar, further solidifying its market position.

Ripple to Unlock 1 Billion XRP, Market Anticipates Impact

On November 1, Ripple plans to unlock 1 billion XRP from escrow, valued at approximately $2.5 billion. This monthly release is part of Ripple's liquidity management strategy, which aims to prevent sudden supply shocks in the market. Historically, Ripple re-locks a significant portion of the unlocked XRP, typically around 70-80%, while only a fraction is utilized for operational needs. Market observers are closely monitoring this event, particularly given XRP's recent price volatility.

The upcoming unlock could influence XRP's price dynamics, especially as traders speculate on potential market movements in response to the release.

Ethereum Options Expiration Sparks Bearish Sentiment

Ethereum is facing pressure as over 646,902 contracts, totaling $2.49 billion in October options, are set to expire today. The current put-to-call ratio stands at 1.25, indicating a higher volume of bearish bets compared to bullish ones. This expiration is expected to lead to short-term price swings as traders adjust their positions ahead of settlement. Ethereum's price is hovering around $3,800, with concerns that it may retest lower levels if sentiment does not improve.

The max pain level for Ethereum is estimated at $4,100, suggesting that prices may gravitate towards this level as the expiration approaches.

Corporate & Capital Markets

Coinbase CEO's Earnings Call Highlights Prediction Market

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong mentioned tracking a prediction market during the firm's Q3 earnings call, stating, “I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call.” He also rattled off words that delighted users who had wagered on him using them, including “Bitcoin” and “Ethereum.” This spontaneous act has received mixed reviews, with some praising it while others likened it to market manipulation.

Fold and Steak 'n Shake Launch Bitcoin Burger Promotion

Fold and Steak 'n Shake are collaborating to offer Bitcoin rewards for buyers of the new Bitcoin Steakburger. Customers purchasing the burger or Bitcoin meal can earn $5 in BTC, claimable via the Fold app. The promotion is available at nearly 400 U.S. restaurant locations, and Steak 'n Shake is also launching a "strategic Bitcoin reserve," holding all payments received in BTC.

Bitcoin Miners' Rewards Reach All-Time Highs Despite Halving

Bitcoin miners are receiving significantly less cryptocurrency, with a reduction of 93.75%, yet their rewards in dollar terms have reached all-time highs. This phenomenon is referred to as the "halving paradox."

Analysts Remain Bullish on Coinbase Following Strong Q3

Analysts have expressed optimism regarding Coinbase's future, highlighting the company's diversification beyond trading. They pointed to momentum in derivatives, stablecoin revenue, and its Base network as potential growth drivers.

Ecosystem Movers

Fold's Innovative Partnership with Steak ’n Shake

Fold has launched a new Bitcoin Burger rewards program in collaboration with Steak ’n Shake, allowing customers to earn bitcoin cashback on their purchases. This initiative is part of Fold's broader strategy to enhance user engagement by integrating cryptocurrency rewards into everyday spending. By partnering with a well-known restaurant chain, Fold aims to attract a wider audience to its platform, potentially increasing user adoption and transaction volume. This partnership not only highlights the growing acceptance of cryptocurrency in mainstream retail but also positions Fold as a key player in the crypto cashback space.

As consumers increasingly seek ways to earn rewards through their everyday purchases, Fold's innovative approach could lead to significant growth in its user base and transaction metrics, further solidifying its market presence in the evolving crypto ecosystem.

Macro & Policy

Tether to Launch U.S.-Compliant Stablecoin Amid Record Profits

Tether has reported a profit of $10 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, primarily driven by returns on its $135 billion in U.S. Treasuries backing its USDT reserves. The company, headquartered in El Salvador, is planning to launch a U.S.-compliant stablecoin named USAT by the end of the year, indicating a significant move towards regulatory compliance in the U.S. market.

Singapore Freezes $150 Million in Assets Linked to Alleged Fraud

The Singapore police have frozen over S$150 million (approximately $106 million) in assets connected to Chen Zhi, a figure implicated in a large-scale Bitcoin fraud operation. This action is part of a broader international enforcement effort that began in mid-October, coinciding with U.S. and UK authorities announcing criminal indictments against Chen, who is accused of running a sophisticated transnational fraud scheme involving Bitcoin worth approximately $14.4 billion.

California Regulator Fines Coinhub $675,000 for Violations

The California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (DFPI) has imposed a $675,000 fine on Bitcoin ATM operator Coinhub for overcharging customers, marking the fourth enforcement action against crypto ATM operators by the regulator. This fine includes $105,000 designated for restitution to consumers who were overcharged, reflecting ongoing regulatory scrutiny in the digital asset space.

Hong Kong Advances Digital Currency Strategy with e-HKD Pilot

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has released a report on the second phase of its e-HKD Pilot Programme, which explores the potential of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and their impact on the financial ecosystem. The report highlights the transition from physical cash to digital money, indicating Hong Kong's ambition to position itself as a leader in digital finance and tokenization.

Security & Incidents

T3 Financial Crime Unit Freezes Over $300 Million in Criminal Assets

The T3 Financial Crime Unit (T3 FCU), a joint initiative led by Tether, TRON, and TRM Labs, announced it has frozen more than $300 million in criminal assets globally. Since its establishment in September 2024, T3 FCU has supported dozens of law enforcement operations targeting money laundering, investment fraud, terrorism financing, and organized crime. Its most notable recent achievement came through Operation Lusocoin, which saw over R$3 billion in assets frozen, including 4.3 million USDT linked to a criminal organization.

Australian Federal Police Seizes $5.9 Million from Coded Wallet

The Australian Federal Police cracked a coded crypto wallet backup holding $5.9 million after a data scientist deciphered a complex numerical sequence on a phone.

Australian Police Recover Over $7 Million from Cracked Crypto Wallets

Australian Federal Police (AFP) Commissioner Krissy Barrett announced that an agency data scientist successfully cracked two password-protected crypto wallets, recovering millions in digital assets linked to organized crime. This announcement was made on October 29.

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