Market Movement:

  • Bitcoin changed hands around $111,300, a 2% gain over the past day.
  • Bitcoin bounced off the $107,000 support, with expected resistance in the $112,000 to $116,000 zone.

Key Events:

  • A record $31 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on Halloween, surpassing last month's $18 billion.
  • XRP’s first US ETF has crossed $100 million in assets under management (AUM) barely a month after launch.

Trading Signals:

  • Open interest at Deribit has reached an all-time high of $50.27 billion.
  • Significant put contracts at $100,000 and call contracts at $120,000 strike prices have been noted.

Narrative Shifts:

  • Traders anticipate a 97% chance of a Fed rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting.
  • Institutional appetite for regulated exposure to XRP is indicated by the ETF's rapid growth to over $100 million AUM.

Risk Alerts:

  • October's flash crash wiped out $19 billion in leveraged positions.
  • The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates next week, which may introduce volatility.

Opportunities:

  • Tether is projected to make $15 billion in profit this year, indicating strong financial health and growth potential.
  • The REX-Osprey XRP ETF provides direct spot access to XRP, appealing to investors seeking compliant avenues.

Flows & Positioning

Bitcoin Faces Resistance at $112K Amid Record Options Expiry

Bitcoin has recently bounced off the critical support level of $107,000 but is now encountering significant resistance in the $112,000 to $116,000 range. This upward movement comes as a record $31 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire on Halloween, surpassing the previous month's $18 billion, indicating heightened market activity and speculation. Despite the recent bounce, the market remains cautious, particularly as $40.56 million in long positions were liquidated in a single day, reflecting nervousness ahead of key macroeconomic events. Traders are closely monitoring these developments as they could influence Bitcoin's ability to maintain momentum.

Institutional Activity: XRP ETF Surpasses $100 Million

The REX-Osprey XRP ETF has crossed a significant milestone, reaching over $100 million in assets under management (AUM) just a month after its launch. This rapid accumulation reflects strong institutional interest in regulated exposure to XRP, particularly as the SEC continues to delay new ETF approvals. In a broader context, institutional confidence is also evident in Bitcoin, with $446 million in inflows reported for Bitcoin ETFs, contrasting with outflows from Ether funds. This divergence highlights a growing preference for Bitcoin among institutional investors, further solidifying its market position.

Price Levels and Whale Movements: Bitcoin's Volatility

Bitcoin is currently trading around $111,546, having recently tested the $112,000 resistance level. Analysts note that the price has been influenced by a softer-than-expected U.S. inflation report, which has led to speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, further fueling market optimism. Additionally, whale activity has been notable, with significant liquidations occurring as traders reacted to price movements. The recent shift in Bitcoin's price dynamics, alongside the upcoming expiration of options, suggests that volatility may continue as traders position themselves for potential market shifts.

Market Implications: Easing Inflation and Institutional Adoption

The recent cooling of inflation, with the U.S. Consumer Price Index rising only 3.0% year-over-year, has created a favorable environment for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Analysts suggest that this easing could lead to a shift in investor sentiment, moving from protective strategies to growth-oriented positions. As institutional adoption continues to grow, particularly with JPMorgan's plans to allow clients to borrow against Bitcoin and Ethereum holdings, the integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional finance is becoming increasingly evident. This trend may bolster Bitcoin's appeal as both a store of value and a speculative asset.

Corporate & Capital Markets

Ripple Completes Acquisition of Hidden Road to Enhance Fintech Services

Ripple has completed its acquisition of Hidden Road, a move that will expand its fintech services for institutional clients and boost the utility and reach of its RLUSD stablecoin.

Bitcoin Mining Stocks Rally Following Jane Street's Stake Disclosure

Shares of leading Bitcoin mining companies rose after Jane Street disclosed new holdings on Thursday, extending a months-long rally across publicly traded mining stocks.

Pump.fun Acquires Padre Trading Terminal, Leading to Token Crash

Pump.fun acquired Padre, an advanced multichain trading terminal, hoping to build out its professional retail user base. This acquisition caused PADRE's token value to largely evaporate, crashing 80% due to community backlash and rug-pull accusations.

JPMorgan's BTC and ETH Pledge Announced

JPMorgan has made a pledge involving Bitcoin and Ethereum, although specific details regarding amounts or implications were not provided in the summary.

Ecosystem Movers

Rumble's Bitcoin Tipping Initiative

Rumble is set to launch a Bitcoin tipping feature for its 51 million monthly users, marking a significant step in mainstream crypto adoption. This initiative, developed in partnership with Tether, aims to empower content creators by allowing them to receive payments in Bitcoin and stablecoins. The feature is currently in testing and is expected to roll out fully by early to mid-December 2025, following necessary refinements and bug fixes. This integration could potentially enhance Bitcoin's utility as a peer-to-peer payment system, aligning with its foundational ethos of financial freedom and decentralization.

Zelle's Exploration of Stablecoin Integration

In a move to expand its trillion-dollar payments network internationally, Zelle is exploring the integration of stablecoin technology for international transfers. This initiative by Early Warning Services, which operates Zelle, indicates a growing interest in utilizing stablecoins to facilitate cross-border payments, potentially enhancing transaction efficiency and reducing costs. The exploration aligns with broader trends in the payments industry, where traditional platforms are increasingly looking to incorporate blockchain technology to remain competitive.

Macro & Policy

Australia Completes First Tokenized Government Bond Investment

Forte Tech Solutions has successfully executed Australia's inaugural tokenized government bond investment, amounting to US$2 million. This pilot project was conducted under the Reserve Bank of Australia's Project Acacia, marking a significant step in the country's financial sector towards digital asset integration.

Relai Secures MiCA License in France

Switzerland-based investment app Relai has obtained a license under the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework in France. This approval aims to facilitate broader access to Bitcoin investment for users across Europe, aligning with the EU's regulatory push for digital assets.

Crypto.com Seeks Federal Trust Bank Charter in the U.S.

Crypto.com has applied for a federal trust bank charter, which, if granted, would enable the exchange to offer federally regulated custody and trust services in the United States. This move reflects a growing trend among crypto firms to seek regulatory clarity and legitimacy in the U.S. financial landscape.

Zelle Explores Stablecoin Integration for International Payments

Early Warning Services, the operator of Zelle, is investigating the potential integration of stablecoin technology to enhance its international payment capabilities. This initiative could significantly expand Zelle's operations within the trillion-dollar payments network, indicating a shift towards digital currency solutions in traditional payment systems.

Bank of France Sets 2026 Deficit Target

Francois Villeroy de Galhau, the governor of the Bank of France, emphasized the need for the country's 2026 deficit to remain within 4.8% of GDP during the Berlin Global Dialogue on October 24, 2025. This statement highlights ongoing fiscal policy discussions that could impact economic stability and investor confidence in the region.

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