Market Movement:

  • Bitcoin hovers around $109,000 with a 5% decline in week 38, closing the quarter with a 1% gain, and tested the $110,775 short-term holder cost basis.
  • Ethereum and other major tokens are not explicitly mentioned, but Bitcoin’s technical levels include a critical support at $107,252, with the 200-day EMA at $106,186.

Key Events:

  • Crypto treasury firms hold approximately $105 billion in assets across Bitcoin, Ether, and other tokens, positioning them as potential long-term ecosystem builders.
  • TeraWulf plans to raise $3 billion via Google-backed debt to expand data centers, with Google holding a 14% stake and supporting the deal with a $3.2 billion backstop.
  • James Wynn opened a 3x leveraged long on ASTER worth over $16,000 at $1.97, with a liquidation level around $1.57, after previously liquidating a $1.2 billion BTC position.

Trading Signals:

  • Over $17 billion in options expired on Friday with the max pain price at $110,000, influencing Bitcoin’s price near the $110,775 on-chain cost basis.
  • Wynn’s recent $ASTER trade is part of high-risk, leveraged activity, with previous positions involving up to 40x leverage on Bitcoin, resulting in a $17.5 million loss before netting $25 million profit.

Narrative Shifts:

  • Institutional interest is shifting toward long-term treasury holdings, with DAT firms potentially evolving into ecosystem operators, signaling a move from speculation to strategic deployment.
  • The AI infrastructure race is attracting crypto miners like TeraWulf, which is leveraging $3 billion debt backed by Google, indicating a sector rotation towards AI and data center expansion.

Risk Alerts:

  • Bitcoin’s recent decline below key support levels ($107,252 and $110,775) and the drop of 5% in Q3 highlight increased short-term volatility and potential trend reversal risks.
  • The expiration of $17 billion in options at the $110,000 strike and Wynn’s high-leverage trades underscore elevated market risk and susceptibility to sudden liquidations.

Opportunities:

  • Long-term prospects for crypto treasury firms suggest potential growth as they evolve into ecosystem builders, with assets under management at $105 billion and potential for strategic influence.
  • The expansion of AI-focused data centers via $3 billion debt raises opportunities in AI infrastructure, with Google’s backing potentially enabling more crypto-mining and AI integration projects.

Flows & Positioning

James Wynn's High-Risk Bet on Aster After Liquidation

James Wynn, known for his billion-dollar bitcoin bet earlier this year, has returned to the market with a new strategy. This time, he has opened a 3x leveraged long position on Aster (ASTER) worth over $16,000, entering at $1.97, despite being recently liquidated on the same token. This move appears to be a hedge related to Wynn's farming of the anticipated $ASTER airdrop, which he believes could be historic. His previous high-stakes trading on Hyperliquid included a $1.2 billion long on bitcoin, which resulted in a $17.5 million loss before he flipped to a billion-dollar short position, ultimately netting $25 million in profit.

Massive Outflows Hit Bitcoin and Ether ETFs Amid Market Pressure

Bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) faced significant outflows, with Bitcoin funds shedding $418 million and ether experiencing $248 million in redemptions. This trend highlights a growing concern among investors as the broader market struggles. The outflows come at a time when Bitcoin's price has been under pressure, recently testing critical support levels. Analysts are closely monitoring these ETF movements, as they can significantly impact market sentiment and liquidity.

Institutional Interest in Solana ETFs Grows Amid Market Optimism

Institutional interest in Solana (SOL) is on the rise, with several major asset managers filing updated S-1 forms for spot Solana ETFs. Analysts predict that approvals could come by mid-October, potentially boosting SOL's market momentum. The recent launch of the REX-Osprey Solana Staking ETF, which garnered $12 million in first-day inflows, signals strong institutional demand. This development could position Solana as a key player in the institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.

Market Dynamics: Bitcoin's Support Levels and Broader Implications

Bitcoin's price has recently slipped below critical support levels, raising concerns about potential further declines. Analysts are watching the $104,000 to $108,000 range closely, as a sustained drop could lead to deeper losses, with $60,000 identified as a long-term support level. This market pressure is compounded by macroeconomic factors and significant ETF outflows, which have contributed to a cautious sentiment among traders. The interplay between institutional actions and market dynamics will be crucial in determining Bitcoin's next moves.

Corporate & Capital Markets

TeraWulf Plans to Raise $3 Billion in Google-Backed Debt

Crypto mining firm TeraWulf (WULF) is planning to raise $3 billion in debt to expand its data center operations in a deal supported by Google. The company is working with Morgan Stanley to arrange the funding, which could launch as early as next month through high-yield bonds or leveraged loans. Google’s support may help TeraWulf secure a stronger credit rating than would be typical for the firm, as it recently increased its backstop for TeraWulf to $3.2 billion, now holding a 14% stake in the company.

WLFI Burns $1.43 Million in Tokens After $1 Million Buyback

Trump-backed WLFI has burned $1.43 million in tokens after a $1.06 million buyback funded by DeFi fees, with another 3.06 million tokens remaining unburned.

Kraken Eyes $20 Billion Valuation in Pre-IPO Funding Round

Kraken is reportedly in advanced talks to raise between $200 million and $300 million from a strategic investor, which could value the crypto exchange at $20 billion ahead of a planned public listing. The exchange is expanding aggressively, with over $1.5 billion in 2024 revenue and a recent $500 million funding round completed at a $15 billion valuation. Kraken is also stepping up its political involvement, pledging $2 million to pro-crypto PACs supporting industry-aligned candidates.

Bitcoin Miner Exodus and Inflows

Bitcoin sentiment turned positive as buyers absorbed miner outflows, with a reported 120,000 miner exodus and a $60 million inflow, while BTC hovered around $109,000.

German AI Start-Up in Funding Talks at $4 Billion Valuation

A German AI start-up is reportedly in funding talks at a $4 billion valuation.

Ecosystem Movers

Market Downturn and Liquidations

The crypto market experienced a significant downturn this week, with a total loss of $240 billion in market capitalization, dropping from $4.12 trillion to $3.88 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) led this decline, falling from approximately $115,700 on September 20 to around $109,500 by September 27, marking a notable decrease of about 5.3%. Additionally, the market saw $6 billion liquidated as traders faced the brunt of the volatility, particularly impacting major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (ETH) and XRP, which also posted steep declines during this turbulent period.

Ethereum's Outflows and Rising Leverage Risks

In a related development, Ethereum is facing mounting risks as it recorded a $7 billion outflow amidst rising leverage in the market. This situation indicates a potential fragility beneath the current bullish momentum, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of recent price movements. The mixed signals from Ethereum's market dynamics suggest that traders should remain cautious as the market adjusts to these changes.

Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands and Upcoming Trends

Amidst the market turbulence, Bitcoin's Bollinger Bands have reached their tightest levels on record, indicating a potential volatility spike ahead. Historically, such a squeeze often precedes a significant price movement, suggesting that traders should prepare for possible volatility in the coming weeks. As October approaches, often referred to as "Uptober" by Bitcoin enthusiasts, there is a growing anticipation for a rebound, especially given Bitcoin's historical performance during this month.

On-Chain & Network

XRP Ledger Achieves $1 Billion Monthly Stablecoin Volume

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) has reached a significant milestone, recording $1 billion in monthly stablecoin volumes. This achievement highlights the growing traction of the XRPL in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space, particularly among institutional participants. Ripple's focus on enhancing the XRPL's capabilities is evident as it aims to facilitate a compliant blockchain credit infrastructure, further driving institutional adoption of DeFi solutions.

Ripple's Initiatives to Unlock Real-World Asset Momentum

In addition to stablecoin volumes, Ripple is working on unlocking momentum for real-world assets on the XRP Ledger. This initiative is part of Ripple's broader strategy to establish a robust framework for institutional DeFi, emphasizing compliance and infrastructure development. The combination of these efforts positions the XRPL as a competitive player in the evolving landscape of decentralized finance.

Macro & Policy

Stablecoin Market Grows by Nearly $4 Billion

The stablecoin sector has seen a significant increase, with the market expanding by approximately $3.969 billion, marking a 1.36% rise. This growth brings the total market capitalization of fiat-pegged tokens close to the $300 billion milestone, specifically at $295.797 billion. Tether's USDT remains the dominant player, accounting for 58.68% of the total stablecoin market, bolstered by an influx of $2 billion.

Potential U.S. Government Shutdown Impacts Crypto Legislation

The U.S. government is facing a potential shutdown, which could stall momentum in crypto policymaking. Congress has until September 30, 2025, to pass a budget bill to avoid this shutdown. The current political landscape shows that while Republicans control both chambers of Congress, they require Democratic support to move forward, complicating the legislative process for crypto market structure bills.

Should a shutdown occur, it is expected to delay progress on critical crypto legislation, including market structure regulations. The likelihood of such legislation passing this year is already diminishing, and a government shutdown could further hinder regulatory efforts, particularly those involving the Senate Banking Committee's draft bill.

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