Market Movement:

  • ETH price dropped below $4,000, reaching a low of $3,983, with a $45 million loss for a whale on leveraged positions, and ETH's market cap reflecting increased volatility.
  • Bitcoin remains range-bound around $117,500, with bulls attempting to seize control amid strong resistance levels.
  • Altcoins like XRP are forecasted to reach $10–$15, representing a 5× upside from current $2.87, indicating potential for significant market movement.

Key Events:

  • M2 Capital invested $20 million in Ethena’s governance token ENA, supporting digital assets expansion in the Middle East, with Ethena attracting over $14 billion in deposits since 2024.
  • An ether whale’s leveraged bullish position of 9,152 ETH ($36.4 million) was liquidated, resulting in total losses exceeding $45 million.
  • Naver is reported to acquire South Korean exchange Upbit through a stock swap, with Naver shares rising over 7% to 246,000 KRW ($175) following the news.

Trading Signals:

  • Over $90 million of leveraged ETH bets were liquidated during Asian hours, with total liquidations around $100 million, indicating high volatility and risk.
  • Ethereum layer-2 rollups like Polygon zkEVM, zkSync, and Arbitrum are mispricing small transactions, risking systemic issues, which could influence fee and volume dynamics.
  • Institutional and whale movements are evident with Ethena’s $20 million institutional investment and the liquidation of a $36.4 million ETH position, signaling shifting market sentiment.

Narrative Shifts:

  • The market is shifting towards risk-on sentiment following the Federal Reserve’s rate cut and positive legislative developments like the GENIUS Act and SEC’s Project Crypto, boosting altcoin and meme coin prospects.
  • The focus on digital infrastructure expansion in the Middle East with Ethena and Naver’s potential acquisition reflects a move toward institutional adoption and regional market growth.
  • The Web3 narrative is evolving from hype to practical applications, with concerns over platform dominance and the need for a trustless, peer-to-peer internet resurging.

Risk Alerts:

  • High leverage liquidations ($45 million on ETH alone) highlight increased systemic risk and potential for cascading liquidations in volatile conditions.
  • Ethereum rollup fee mispricing could lead to inflated user costs or denial-of-service attacks, posing systemic risks to small transactions.
  • Regulatory risks remain elevated with ongoing legislative initiatives like the GENIUS Act and SEC’s Project Crypto, which could impact market stability.

Opportunities:

  • XRP’s predicted rise to $10–$15 (more than 5× from $2.87) presents a significant upside for investors aligned with Ripple’s legal and market expansion.
  • The Middle East’s digital asset expansion via Ethena and M2 Capital’s $20 million investment signals growth potential in stablecoin-like products and regional adoption.
  • The potential acquisition of Upbit by Naver could strengthen South Korea’s crypto infrastructure, creating opportunities for regional market consolidation and growth.

Flows & Positioning

Ether Whale Faces $45M Loss Amid Market Decline

An ether whale suffered a significant loss of $45 million after its leveraged position was liquidated as ETH dipped below $4,000 for the first time since August 8. The whale, identified by the address 0xa523, had a bullish position worth 9,152 ETH, which was forcibly liquidated on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid due to the broader cryptocurrency market downturn. This liquidation was part of a larger trend, with approximately $100 million in leveraged bets liquidated during Asian trading hours, predominantly from bullish positions. Ether's price fell to a low of $3,983, reflecting heightened market anxiety over potential U.S. government shutdowns, which have historically impacted investor sentiment.

ETF Outflows Signal Investor Caution Amid Market Volatility

Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) experienced substantial outflows, totaling $244 million on September 23, marking the second consecutive day of withdrawals. This follows a sharp $439 million exit the previous day, indicating a trend of investor caution as they reposition around macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut. Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF led the withdrawals with $75.6 million, while Ethereum funds saw even larger redemptions of $140.7 million. This trend suggests that investors are increasingly wary of market conditions, opting to liquidate positions in favor of cash or alternative investments.

Market Movements: Ether and Bitcoin Under Pressure

Ether's recent price drop has put it under significant pressure, falling over 3% during Asian trading hours. Meanwhile, Bitcoin also faced a decline, dropping below $112,000, as concerns about a potential U.S. government shutdown weighed heavily on market sentiment. In contrast, trading volumes surged for certain tokens, with Aster experiencing a remarkable rise of over 350% since its launch, driven by strong speculative interest.

This divergence highlights the volatility within the crypto market, where some assets are gaining traction while others struggle.

Outlook: Institutional Interest and Market Dynamics

The recent developments in the crypto market indicate a complex interplay of institutional interest and investor caution. While significant outflows from ETFs reflect a risk-averse stance, the rise of new tokens like Aster suggests that innovation continues to attract speculative capital. As the market navigates potential regulatory challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties, the focus will likely shift toward how institutional players adapt their strategies, particularly in light of the growing trend of digital asset treasuries. This evolving landscape could redefine investment strategies in the crypto space.

Corporate & Capital Markets

Thumzup Media Launches $10M Share Buyback, Builds Bitcoin and Dogecoin Treasury

Thumzup Media (Nasdaq: TZUP) has unveiled a new $10 million share buyback program, extending its capital return strategy through December 31, 2026. The company completed a $1 million repurchase plan, buying back 212,432 shares at an average price of $4.71. Following the announcement, Thumzup shares climbed 5.7% to $4.81, resulting in a market cap of roughly $78 million. Thumzup Media currently holds over 19 BTC and 7.5 million DOGE, with approval to build a $250 million crypto treasury.

The company is also awaiting shareholder approval to acquire DogeHash Technologies, which operates 2,500 mining rigs with another 1,000 units on the way.

Coinbase Leads $14.6 Million Round in Bastion

Coinbase Ventures led a $14.6 million funding round for Bastion, a startup focused on white-label stablecoin issuance. The round also included participation from Sony Innovation Fund, a16z crypto, Samsung Next, and Hashed. Bastion has raised over $40 million to date.

Ecosystem Movers

Bitcoin Miners Shift Focus to AI Cloud Services

Bitcoin miner IREN (IREN) is making headlines as analysts at Bernstein have raised their price target for the company from $20 to $75, indicating an impressive potential upside of approximately 80%. This shift comes as IREN pivots towards developing its own AI cloud business, moving away from reliance on co-location deals. The company is projecting significant growth, with expectations of reaching $500 million in annual recurring revenue by Q1 2026, driven by a fleet of 23,300 GPUs. Currently, IREN's mining operation is generating an estimated $600 million in annualized EBITDA, which is being utilized to fund its AI expansion efforts.

Bernstein's analysis suggests that IREN's valuation could still expand further, as it trades at $7.5 million per megawatt, which is below established data center peers, indicating room for growth in the AI cloud sector.

Corporate Crypto Adoption Grows with Jiuzi's $1B Investment Plan

In a notable move towards corporate adoption of cryptocurrencies, Jiuzi Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: JZXN) announced a $1 billion investment plan focusing on Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and BNB. Following this announcement, Jiuzi's shares surged by 55.5% in premarket trading. This strategic initiative aims to diversify the company's asset portfolio amid fierce competition in the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) market in China.

The introduction of a dedicated risk oversight framework further underscores the company's commitment to navigating the complexities of crypto investments.

Market Sentiment and Price Predictions for Altcoins

As Bitcoin bulls attempt to gain control of the market, analysts predict strong selling resistance around the $117,500 mark. This price action could create a range-bound environment for Bitcoin, potentially benefiting altcoins as investor sentiment shifts towards riskier assets. Perplexity AI has made aggressive predictions for altcoins like XRP, suggesting a potential rise to between $10 and $15 by the end of 2025, which would represent a fivefold increase from its current price of $2.87. This optimism is bolstered by recent regulatory developments, including the signing of the GENIUS Act and the SEC's Project Crypto, which could pave the way for a new altcoin supercycle.

On-Chain & Network

M2 Capital Partners with Ethena to Enhance Digital Asset Infrastructure

M2 Capital Limited has invested $20 million in Ethena, aiming to expand digital asset offerings in the Middle East. Ethena is recognized for its crypto-native synthetic dollar, USDe, and its yield-bearing counterpart, sUSDe, which are backed by crypto collateral and employ hedging strategies to mitigate volatility. Since its launch in 2024, Ethena has garnered over $14 billion in deposits, indicating a strong demand for stablecoin-like products that also provide yield. This partnership will enable M2 Global Wealth to integrate Ethena's services into its wealth management offerings, enhancing access to emerging digital finance tools in the region.

Chainlink Partners with Canton Network to Boost Institutional Adoption

Canton Network has formed a strategic alliance with Chainlink to enhance institutional adoption of blockchain technology. This partnership will see the integration of Chainlink’s services, including Data Streams and Proof of Reserve, into Canton’s infrastructure. Additionally, Chainlink will serve as a Super Validator in Canton’s Global Synchronizer, which is crucial for maintaining transaction synchronization across the network. Canton currently processes $280 billion in daily repo transactions and secures over $6 trillion in tokenized real-world assets, positioning this collaboration as a significant step towards facilitating faster access to tokenized securities and stablecoins for financial institutions.

AgriFORCE to Rebrand as AVAX One, Focusing on AVAX Ownership

AgriFORCE Growing Systems Ltd. plans to rebrand as AVAX One, aiming to establish itself as the first Nasdaq-listed company dedicated to maximizing ownership of AVAX, the native token of the Avalanche blockchain. The company is seeking to raise approximately $550 million, with the goal of holding over $700 million in AVAX. Avalanche has become a prominent blockchain for institutional-grade applications, securing more than $6.2 billion in staked assets and facilitating the tokenization of real-world assets for major firms like KKR and J.P.

Morgan.

Ethereum Developers Target December for Fusaka Hard Fork

Ethereum developers have confirmed a tentative roadmap for the upcoming Fusaka hard fork, scheduled for early December. This upgrade aims to enhance the blockchain's scalability and will be preceded by tests on three public test networks in October. Following the Fusaka upgrade, additional changes will incrementally increase blob capacity, which allows Ethereum to store large amounts of rollup transaction data more efficiently. These enhancements are intended to reduce costs for users of layer-2 scaling networks, further optimizing Ethereum's performance.

Ethereum Layer-2 Rollups Face Pricing Challenges, Study Reveals

A recent study has highlighted that Ethereum's layer-2 rollups are mispricing small transactions, which could lead to inflated user costs and potential denial-of-service attacks. The research indicates that different rollups, including Polygon zkEVM, zkSync, Scroll, Optimism, and Arbitrum, utilize divergent fee models that may be exploitable. The authors recommend implementing multidimensional pricing strategies for execution, data, and proof to mitigate systemic risks associated with these pricing discrepancies.

Naver's Potential Acquisition of Dunamu Enhances Crypto Market Position

Naver is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Upbit operator Dunamu through a stock swap, which would give Naver control over South Korea's largest cryptocurrency exchange. This strategic move aims to solidify Naver's entry into the digital finance and crypto markets, potentially reshaping the financial services landscape in South Korea. The partnership is expected to leverage Naver's extensive payment processing capabilities, which amount to 80 trillion Korean won ($58 billion) annually, alongside Upbit's market dominance.

Macro & Policy

Australia Proposes Significant Penalties for Crypto Rule Breaches

Australia's draft legislation aims to impose penalties of up to 10% of annual turnover on digital asset platforms that violate new regulations. This includes a requirement for exchanges to secure an Australian Financial Services Licence and mandates adherence to honest and fair practices. Firms found in breach could face penalties of A$16.5 million (approximately US$10.9 million), three times the benefit gained, or 10% of their annual turnover, whichever is greater. The consultation period for this draft law is open until October 24, 2025, indicating a significant regulatory shift in the Australian crypto landscape.

California Gubernatorial Candidate Promises Bitcoin Integration into State Policy

Ian Calderon, a former California Assembly majority leader, has announced his candidacy for governor, pledging to integrate Bitcoin into the state's financial framework. His proposal includes backing crypto payments for state programs and aims to position California as a leader in Bitcoin adoption. Calderon previously supported blockchain policy through legislation and is advocating for a more robust state-level engagement with digital assets.

Regulatory Scrutiny Intensifies as Senators Call for Investigations into Trump Administration Officials

Senators Elizabeth Warren and Elissa Slotkin are urging oversight officials to investigate potential conflicts of interest involving key Trump administration officials related to national security technology sales to the UAE. This inquiry is particularly relevant as Congress considers legislation aimed at establishing a clearer digital asset market structure, emphasizing the importance of preventing crypto-related corruption from undermining national security.

Binance Expands Operations in Vietnam Amid Regulatory Developments

Vietnam's Deputy Prime Minister has invited Binance to establish an office in Da Nang City, highlighting the government's interest in developing a robust crypto market. Binance signed a memorandum of understanding to cooperate on blockchain and digital assets, indicating a push towards creating an international financial center in Vietnam. This move aligns with broader efforts in the Asia-Pacific region to enhance regulatory frameworks and support for digital asset platforms.

Australia's Financial Regulatory Environment Tightens for Crypto Platforms

The Australian government is moving to extend the Corporations Act to include digital asset platforms, enhancing consumer protections and formal licensing requirements. This regulatory framework is in response to increasing concerns about the risks associated with retail crypto investments and aims to bring major players like Coinbase and Kraken under stricter oversight. The Australian Taxation Office is also intensifying its scrutiny of crypto transactions for capital gains tax compliance.

Security & Incidents

Ransomware Group Rhysida Auctions Stolen Maryland Transit Data for 30 BTC

Ransomware group Rhysida reportedly stole sensitive data and personal information from the Maryland Department of Transportation. The collective is now auctioning off the contents for 30 Bitcoin, or $3.4 million worth. The stolen data includes sensitive personal information such as social security numbers, addresses, and dates of birth.

Ransomware Payments Total $813 Million in 2024 Despite 35% Decrease

Ransomware payments were down 35% in 2024, but still amounted to $813 million in total. This indicates a significant ongoing issue with ransomware attacks despite the decrease in payment amounts.

Disclaimer: The content provided in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. You are encouraged to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Daily Signals and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the information presented.

© 2025 Daily Signals. All rights reserved.