Market Movement:

  • Kalshi accounted for 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, while Polymarket stood at 37% from Sept. 11 to 17.
  • Polymarket's trading volume was $430 million, with an average open interest of $164 million.

Key Events:

  • BitGo filed for an IPO with $4.19 billion in revenue for H1 2025 and manages over $90 billion in cryptocurrency on its platform.
  • Caliber acquired $6.7 million worth of LINK as part of its Chainlink treasury strategy.

Trading Signals:

  • Kalshi's weekly trading pace topped $500 million, indicating a strong trading environment.
  • Polymarket averaged an open interest-to-volume ratio of 0.38, while Kalshi sat lower at 0.29.

Narrative Shifts:

  • Kalshi's users are trading more often compared to Polymarket, which tends to keep user funds locked in longer.
  • BitGo's IPO filing follows public listing moves from other major companies in the cryptocurrency sector.

Risk Alerts:

  • Yakovenko warned of a "50/50" chance that quantum computers could break Bitcoin's cryptographic protections by 2030.
  • The tightening of BitGo's net income to $12.6 million in H1 2025 from $30.9 million in H1 2024 indicates rising operational risks.

Opportunities:

  • The launch of earnings-based markets by Polymarket in partnership with Stocktwits presents new investment opportunities.
  • Caliber's integration of the Chainlink network into its business strategy may enhance its growth potential.

Flows & Positioning

Kalshi Dominates Prediction Market with $500M Weekly Volume

Kalshi has surged ahead in the prediction market sector, capturing 62% of the total trading volume from September 11 to 17, amounting to over $500 million. In contrast, Polymarket accounted for 37% of the volume, totaling $430 million. This shift indicates a growing preference for Kalshi's faster trading dynamics, as evidenced by its lower open interest-to-volume ratio of 0.29 compared to Polymarket's 0.38, suggesting more frequent trading activity on Kalshi. Polymarket, while trailing in volume, is making strategic moves to strengthen its position in the U.S.

market. The platform has successfully acquired QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, and launched earnings-based markets in collaboration with Stocktwits, aiming to enhance user engagement and market sentiment analysis.

BlackRock's Crypto ETFs Generate $260M in Revenue

BlackRock has reported impressive earnings from its foray into cryptocurrency, generating over $260 million in revenue from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs within two years. The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) alone accounted for approximately $218 million in fees, while the Ethereum fund (ETHA) contributed an additional $42 million. This success highlights the growing institutional interest and profitability of crypto-related financial products. As institutional demand for crypto ETFs continues to rise, BlackRock's strategic positioning in this space could set a precedent for other financial institutions.

The firm's ability to capture significant market share underscores the potential for further growth in the crypto ETF sector, especially as regulatory frameworks evolve.

Bitcoin Accumulation Reaches $2.67B as Price Stabilizes

Bitcoin has seen a notable accumulation surge, with investors purchasing over 23,000 BTC worth approximately $2.67 billion in just 24 hours. This influx of capital indicates a strong bullish sentiment among Bitcoin holders, as many are moving their assets off exchanges, suggesting a long-term holding strategy. The current price stabilization around $115,500 reflects a consolidation phase, potentially setting the stage for future upward movement. Additionally, the recent buying frenzy aligns with a broader trend of institutional adoption, as corporate treasuries now hold over 1 million BTC.

This growing institutional interest could further bolster Bitcoin's price as it moves toward new highs, with analysts projecting targets as high as $120,000.

Market Volatility Expected to Decrease as Institutions Enter

Michael Saylor has indicated that Bitcoin may enter a phase of reduced volatility as institutional investment increases. This transition could transform Bitcoin from a speculative asset into a more stable store of value, appealing to larger investors who prefer lower risk. As corporate treasuries continue to accumulate Bitcoin, the overall market dynamics are shifting towards greater stability. Moreover, Saylor's insights suggest that the current market consolidation, characterized by long-term holders selling portions of their holdings, is a natural progression.

This could pave the way for increased institutional allocations once volatility diminishes, reinforcing Bitcoin's position as a viable asset class.

Corporate & Capital Markets

BitGo Files for IPO With $4.2B in H1 2025 Revenue, $90B in Crypto on Platform

Crypto custodian BitGo has filed its first public S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), planning to list Class A common stock on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker BTGO. BitGo generated $4.19 billion in revenue in the first six months of 2025, nearly quadrupling the $1.12 billion recorded in the same period a year earlier. Net income for the half-year fell to $12.6 million, down from $30.9 million in the first half of 2024, as rising operating costs weighed on margins.

In 2024, BitGo reported $3.08 billion in revenue and $156.6 million in net income, with $54.1 million attributable to common stockholders. The firm now manages over $90 billion in cryptocurrency on its platform, from 1.14 million users. As of June 30, 2025, the value of a majority of their Assets on Platform has been concentrated in a few digital assets held by clients, including Bitcoin, Sui, Solana, XRP, and Ethereum, which constitute 48.5%, 20.1%, 5.7%, 3.9%, and 3.0% of their AoP, respectively. The S-1 filing also outlines a dual-class share structure, ensuring CEO Mike Belshe retains control after the offering.

BitGo stated that IPO proceeds would fund technology development, acquisitions, and stock-based compensation while boosting visibility and financial flexibility. The IPO follows public listing moves from other major companies in the cryptocurrency sector, including Circle.

New World Scion Adrian Cheng Launches Digital Asset Firm ALMAD

Adrian Cheng, chief executive officer of New World Development Co., during an interview in Hong Kong, China, on Monday, Aug 12, 2024, said he expects the city to become the world's top destination for family offices, as it steps up efforts to lure and retain more billionaires and their heirs.

Ecosystem Movers

Bitcoin's Resilience Amid Market Trends

Despite historical trends of poor performance in September, Bitcoin has recently broken through the $123,000 mark, raising speculation about its potential to reach $130,000. This breakout could signal a shift in market sentiment, as traders and investors look for signs of sustained growth in the cryptocurrency space. The ongoing price movements suggest that Bitcoin may be defying seasonal patterns, which could attract more institutional interest and retail investment.

Ethereum's Potential for Growth

Ethereum is also in the spotlight, with analysts suggesting that the cryptocurrency could be poised for a significant price increase, potentially reaching the $10,000 mark. This optimism is fueled by recent market dynamics and the belief that Ethereum's underlying technology can outperform traditional giants like Google. Additionally, some analysts are advising investors to consider adding long positions in Ethereum, indicating a favorable buying opportunity at current price levels.

Emerging Altcoin Developments

The altcoin Aster has gained significant attention after a 1,000% surge, attributed to backing from prominent figures like CZ. However, concerns remain regarding its ability to maintain this momentum against established competitors like Hyperliquid, which boasts a liquidity dominance of $18 billion. The competitive landscape in the altcoin market continues to evolve, with new projects vying for market share and investor interest.

On-Chain & Network

Tether Mints $5 Billion USDT Following Fed Rate Cut

Tether has minted a total of $5 billion in USDT within a week, indicating a significant demand for digital assets after the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. This includes $1 billion created on Ethereum after the Fed's meeting on September 19, which followed a prior $4 billion minted before the FOMC meeting on September 17. The rate cut, which reduced borrowing costs, often stimulates demand for stablecoins as investors seek to hedge against volatility in traditional markets.

Circle Launches Arc Blockchain for Stablecoin Applications

Arc is a blockchain built by USDC issuer Circle for stablecoin-focused applications. It uses USDC for gas, features a built-in FX engine, and enables opt-in privacy. Public testnet is expected later this year, with a mainnet beta planned for 2026.

Concerns Over Bitcoin's Quantum Security Vulnerability

Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko warned that Bitcoin developers must act to prepare for a possible quantum computing breakthrough that could render the network’s current security measures obsolete. Speaking at the All-In Summit 2025 , Yakovenko said there’s a “50/50” chance quantum computers will be powerful enough within five years to break the cryptographic protections securing Bitcoin wallets. “We should migrate Bitcoin to a quantum-resistant signature scheme,” he said.

Vitalik Buterin Advocates for Low-Risk DeFi as Revenue Source

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes the network’s long-term sustainability may depend on an unlikely hero: low-risk decentralized finance protocols. Key Takeaways: Vitalik Buterin sees low-risk DeFi as a stable revenue source that could support Ethereum’s ecosystem without compromising its values. He likens it to Google Search, arguing it can fund Ethereum’s growth while keeping the network ideologically grounded.

Macro & Policy

Tether Mints $5 Billion in USDT Following Fed Rate Cut

Tether has minted a total of $5 billion in USDT in the past week, reflecting a surge in demand for digital assets after the U.S. Federal Reserve's recent monetary policy shift. On September 19, 2025, it was reported that Tether created an additional $1 billion in tokens on the Ethereum blockchain, following a prior minting of $4 billion before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on September 17, 2025. This meeting resulted in a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the benchmark interest rate, marking the first rate cut of the year and indicating potential for further easing in monetary policy.

Federal Reserve Signals More Rate Cuts Amid Economic Pressure

The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points has been influenced by ongoing pressure from the White House to reduce borrowing costs. This rate cut is part of a broader strategy, with officials indicating that two more reductions may be expected within the year. Such monetary easing is likely to have significant implications for various asset classes, including cryptocurrencies, as lower rates typically encourage investment in riskier assets.

European Central Bank Maintains Current Rates Amid Inflation Goals

In contrast to the Fed's actions, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have expressed confidence in their current monetary stance, stating that they are at a 'good equilibrium' and see no immediate need for further easing. This follows a series of eight interest rate cuts aimed at achieving an inflation target of around 2%. The ECB's cautious approach may highlight differing economic conditions and policy responses between the U.S. and Europe.

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