Market Movement:

  • Bitcoin (BTC) traded back and forth between $114,000 and $117,000, currently at $115,860, below record highs of above $124,000.
  • Ethereum (ETH) pulled back from nearly $4,800 to $4,500 in three days, having previously reached lifetime highs above $5,000.

Key Events:

  • Citigroup forecasts ether (ETH) to fall to $4,300 by year-end, down from the current $4,515.
  • XRP (Ripple) is predicted to climb as high as $30 by late 2025, representing more than a fivefold increase from its current price of $3.00.

Trading Signals:

  • ETF inflows surged nearly 200% last week, with Bitcoin ETF inflows occurring for five consecutive days.
  • U.S.-listed mining companies mined 3,573 bitcoin in August, compared to 3,598 in July.

Narrative Shifts:

  • The Altcoin Season Index is at a 90-day high, indicating potential rotation into higher-beta assets.
  • More than 92% of Bitcoin supply is in profit, suggesting profit-taking is on the rise.

Risk Alerts:

  • Bitcoin mining profitability declined 5% in August due to an increase in the network hashrate.
  • Analysts warn that the market remains exposed if risk returns, as buying conviction is shallow.

Opportunities:

  • Analysts argue that Ethereum could emerge as the biggest winner from the rise of digital asset treasuries (DATs).
  • If XRP retests its highs and sustains momentum, it could lead to significant gains for investors.

Flows & Positioning

Bitcoin Holds Steady at $115K Amid ETF Inflows and Fed Rate Cut Speculation

Bitcoin (BTC) has maintained a trading range just above $115,000, reflecting a cautious optimism in the market. This stability comes as traders anticipate a potential 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, which could bolster risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The recent performance of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both reaching record highs, has also contributed to this positive sentiment.

Despite this bullish backdrop, Bitcoin's price action has been characterized by indecision, with long-term holders taking profits. Analysts suggest that while ETF inflows are strong, the spot market remains weak, indicating a fragile recovery. The upcoming Fed decision could significantly influence market dynamics, with expectations of increased volatility.

Institutional Activity Boosts ETF Inflows to $3.3 Billion

Recent data indicates a significant rebound in cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs), with inflows totaling $3.3 billion last week. This surge has lifted total assets under management in crypto ETPs to $239 billion, reflecting a growing institutional interest in digital assets. Notably, Bitcoin ETPs have led this charge, capturing the majority of the inflows.

Furthermore, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund have been primary beneficiaries, collectively attracting over $1.8 billion. This influx underscores a structural demand from institutional investors, which could pave the way for further growth in the crypto market.

Whale Activity and Market Volatility Signal Caution

Whale selling pressure has been evident in the market, particularly with tokens like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Stellar's XLM, which have experienced sharp declines. XLM, for instance, saw a 3% drop amid heavy institutional selling, with trading volumes peaking significantly above average. This trend highlights the ongoing volatility and the potential for further price corrections.

Additionally, Bitcoin's price has fluctuated between $114,000 and $117,000, indicating a battleground for traders. The market's current positioning suggests that while there is optimism, the potential for a pullback remains if institutional selling continues or if the Fed's decision leads to unexpected market reactions.

Market Outlook: Fed Decision Could Drive Future Trends

The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is poised to be a critical event for the cryptocurrency market. A 25-basis-point rate cut could enhance the appeal of risk assets, potentially driving Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies higher. Conversely, a surprise move could lead to increased volatility across the board.

As institutional flows into Bitcoin and Ethereum treasuries continue to shape market dynamics, the focus will be on how these developments interact with broader economic indicators. Traders are advised to remain vigilant, as the interplay between institutional activity and macroeconomic factors will likely dictate the next moves in the crypto space.

Corporate & Capital Markets

Credit Saison Launches $50M Fund for Blockchain Startups

Credit Saison, Japan’s third-largest credit card issuer, has introduced a $50 million investment vehicle called Onigiri Capital to support startups working on blockchain-based real-world asset applications. The fund has raised approximately $35 million to date and intends to close at $50 million.

MoonPay Acquires Payments Startup Meso

MoonPay is set to acquire payments startup Meso, with no financial details of the acquisition provided. This acquisition supports MoonPay's goal of building an international crypto payments network.

Standard Chartered Plans $250M Digital Asset Fund

SC Ventures aims to launch a $250 million digital asset fund next year, with backing from Middle Eastern investors.

Ecosystem Movers

Dogecoin ETF Launch and Market Performance

The anticipated launch of the Rex Shares-Osprey Dogecoin ETF (DOJE) is set to occur this week, marking a significant milestone as the first U.S. ETF focused on a meme coin. Despite previous delays, analysts from Bloomberg suggest that Thursday is the most likely launch date. In the lead-up to this event, Dogecoin (DOGE) has shown strong performance, gaining 15% over the past month, although it experienced a slight decline of 3.5% in the last 24 hours. The ETF will not hold DOGE directly but will gain exposure through futures and derivatives, which allows for trading within traditional brokerage accounts without the need for physical custody of the coin.

Bitcoin Price Movements and Market Sentiment

Bitcoin is currently facing resistance at $117,500, with analysts suggesting a potential rally to $124,474 if it maintains its position above key moving averages. As of recent reports, Bitcoin has been holding steady around $115,000, reflecting a minor slip of 0.07% over the past day. This price action comes amid a broader market pullback, where major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum and several meme tokens, have also seen declines. Notably, DOGE dropped over 4% in the last 24 hours, indicating a trend of profit-taking among traders following recent gains.

Regulatory Developments and Market Implications

Recent regulatory advancements, including the signing of the GENIUS Act and the SEC's Project Crypto, are expected to provide greater clarity for crypto firms, potentially boosting market sentiment. These developments may set the stage for a resurgence in altcoins and meme tokens, reminiscent of the 2021 market frenzy. Analysts predict that tokens like XRP, which recently surged to $3.65, could see significant gains as the market stabilizes and regulatory frameworks become clearer. The overall market cap has seen a slight decline of 2% recently, suggesting that traders are recalibrating their positions ahead of potential rate cuts from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

On-Chain & Network

Base Achieves Significant Transaction Volume and TVL Milestones

Base, the layer-2 blockchain developed by Coinbase, has reported impressive metrics, including a total value locked (TVL) of $5 billion, positioning it as the second-largest layer-2 network by TVL. The platform has also demonstrated robust user engagement, with a staggering 328 million transactions recorded over the past 30 days, significantly surpassing Arbitrum's 77 million transactions and even eclipsing the Ethereum mainnet's fewer than 50 million transactions in the same period. This performance underscores Base's growing traction and operational efficiency within the Ethereum ecosystem.

Maple Finance Expands Offerings with New Yield Product on Plasma

Maple Finance has launched syrupUSDT on Plasma, a payments-focused blockchain backed by Tether, marking its first major expansion beyond Ethereum. This new product allows users to deposit USDT into a vault hosted by Midas, generating yield while also distributing rewards linked to Plasma's upcoming mainnet launch and token generation event. The initiative highlights Maple's strategy to enhance liquidity and aims to reach $5 billion in assets under management by the end of 2025.

Ethereum Foundation Initiates AI Research Team for Blockchain Integration

The Ethereum Foundation has established a dedicated artificial intelligence (AI) team to enhance Ethereum's role as a settlement layer for the emerging "machine economy." This initiative aims to enable AI agents to transact and coordinate autonomously without intermediaries, thereby integrating AI capabilities into the Ethereum ecosystem. The team will focus on developing a decentralized AI stack, promoting trust and utility in AI applications on the blockchain.

Boundless Launches Mainnet on Base for Zero-Knowledge Compute

Boundless has officially launched its Mainnet on Base, providing a decentralized marketplace for zero-knowledge (ZK) proofs. This launch allows developers to access verifiable compute across various blockchains, enhancing privacy and scalability for applications. The introduction of Proof of Verifiable Work incentivizes ZK miners based on computation volume, speed, and complexity, marking a significant technical milestone for cross-chain interoperability and privacy-preserving applications.

Token Unlocks May Influence Market Dynamics

This week, tokens worth over $790 million are set to be unlocked across various ecosystems, including Optimism, which will release 116 million OP tokens on September 21. Such unlocks could lead to increased market volatility and impact price movements in the short term, as significant amounts of previously locked supply enter circulation.

Macro & Policy

Ripple Commits $25M in Stablecoin to Support U.S. Small Businesses and Veterans

Ripple has pledged $25 million worth of its RLUSD stablecoin to support small-business lending and veteran employment programs in the U.S. This funding will be deployed by nonprofit organizations Accion Opportunity Fund and Hire Heroes USA, aiming to enhance capital access and job training for veterans and military families. Ripple's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, emphasized the importance of supporting small businesses and veterans as key drivers of economic progress in the U.S.

Additionally, Accion Opportunity Fund anticipates that this donation will generate a $125 million lending impact through new initiatives, including the Ripple Digital Leap Forward accelerator, which will provide training and initial support for business owners. This donation follows Ripple's earlier $25 million commitment to education-focused nonprofits, indicating a strategic focus on leveraging stablecoins for social impact.

Federal Reserve Expected to Cut Rates, Impacting Crypto Markets

The Federal Reserve is poised to announce a 25 basis point rate cut during its policy meeting on September 17, 2025, which would lower the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. This marks the first reduction of the year after maintaining rates between 4.25% and 4.50% for several months. Analysts, including Tom Lee from BitMine, predict that such a move could trigger significant rallies in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as these digital assets are sensitive to liquidity changes.

Market expectations for the rate cut have been influenced by signs of a cooling labor market, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% in July, while inflation remains elevated at around 3%. The anticipation of a rate cut has already led to increased activity in tech shares and crypto assets, with traders bracing for potential volatility in response to the Fed's decision.

Gemini Reaches Settlement with SEC Over Earn Program

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reached a preliminary settlement with Gemini regarding its Earn lending program, which was accused of offering unregistered securities. The settlement concludes nearly two years of legal disputes, with the SEC initially filing the lawsuit in January 2023. The resolution is pending final approval and could set a significant precedent for how regulators treat crypto lending and yield products in the U.S.

At its peak, the Gemini Earn program attracted approximately $900 million from 340,000 customers before Genesis Global Capital, the partner firm, froze withdrawals and subsequently filed for bankruptcy in early 2023. The SEC's allegations centered on the lack of necessary disclosures for investors, which could have implications for other crypto lending platforms.

Fellowship PAC Launches with $100M to Influence Crypto Policy

The Fellowship PAC has been established with over $100 million to support pro-Trump candidates, aiming to influence crypto policy in the U.S. This super PAC's formation comes amid increasing political spending in the crypto sector, reflecting a strategic effort to safeguard U.S. leadership in cryptocurrency through backing candidates focused on transparency and innovation.

The PAC was registered with the Federal Election Commission in August 2025, although it has not yet reported any financial activities. The launch underscores the growing intersection of cryptocurrency and political advocacy, as stakeholders seek to shape regulatory frameworks that impact the industry.

Korean Court Sentences Accomplices in V Global Crypto Fraud

A South Korean court has sentenced three individuals involved in the V Global cryptocurrency fraud to suspended prison terms, following a scheme that defrauded approximately 50,000 victims out of $1.4 billion. The sentences include substantial fines, with one individual fined about $436,000 and others facing penalties of $307,000 and $186,000, respectively. The court's decision reflects ongoing efforts to address cryptocurrency fraud and protect investors in the region.

Security & Incidents

Shibarium Exploit Results in $2.4 Million Loss

Shiba Inu's Shibarium entered a 'damage control mode' following a flash loan exploit that resulted in a loss of $2.4 million. The incident raises concerns about the ecosystem's ability to recover from this shock.

EU Regulators Call for Stronger Crypto Oversight

Market watchdogs in France, Austria, and Italy have urged the European Union to enhance its regulatory framework for crypto markets. They highlighted that uneven enforcement of the MiCA legislation could expose investors to unregulated risks.

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