Market Movement:

  • Bitcoin recently reclaimed the $115,000 level, with resistance around $116,000, supported by ETF inflows and easing U.S. inflation data.
  • ETH is trading above $4,600, buoyed by strong ETF inflows, maintaining upward momentum.
  • Gold remains near record highs, reflecting dollar weakness amid expectations of Fed rate cuts.

Key Events:

  • Native Markets' validator community awarded the USDH stablecoin issuance bid, with 70% validator votes, and plans to roll out within days.
  • U.S.-listed ETFs reached a record $12.19 trillion in assets at the end of August, with August inflows totaling $120.65 billion and year-to-date inflows at $799 billion.
  • Bitcoin ETFs manage over $100 billion, representing about 4% of Bitcoin’s $2.1 trillion market cap, with Ether ETFs adding $20 billion.

Trading Signals:

  • August ETF inflows of $120.65 billion, with equity ETFs leading at $42 billion, fixed income at $32 billion, and crypto ETFs over $120 billion combined.
  • Public companies hold 3.68 million BTC, with notable purchases like KindlyMD’s 5,744 BTC ($679 million) and Bullish’s 24,000 BTC valued at $2.6 billion.
  • Bitcoin’s rally peaked at $123,000 in August but declined over 11.5% to below $109,000 by month-end.

Narrative Shifts:

  • Record ETF flows challenge Federal Reserve influence, with assets rising from $10.35 trillion to $12.19 trillion in 2024, emphasizing institutional adoption.
  • Crypto ETFs now account for a significant portion of market activity, with Bitcoin and Ether ETFs managing over $120 billion, signaling increased mainstream acceptance.
  • The slowdown in corporate Bitcoin buying from over 100,000 BTC in July to 47,718 BTC ($5.2 billion) in August indicates a potential shift in market momentum.

Risk Alerts:

  • Bitcoin’s lack of momentum and resistance at $116,000 suggest caution amid potential volatility ahead of Fed rate decisions.
  • Regulatory risks persist with new stablecoin and DeFi protocol security concerns, especially following the Yala attack and ongoing protocol upgrades.

Opportunities:

  • Growing ETF inflows and institutional holdings suggest bullish potential in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with targets near $116,000 and $4,600 respectively.
  • Native Markets’ USDH launch could foster new stablecoin trading opportunities, especially if backed by validator credibility and liquidity growth.
  • The fading of XRP’s liquidity shock and potential for price recovery to $3.80 presents a short-term trading opportunity.

Flows & Positioning

Native Markets Secures USDH Stablecoin Rights Amid Validator Vote

Native Markets has emerged victorious in the governance vote to issue USDH, defeating competitors like Paxos and Ethena. Garnering approximately 70% of the validator votes, Native Markets plans to roll out USDH within days, aiming to rival Circle’s USDC, which currently holds nearly $6 billion in deposits on Hyperliquid.

The phased launch will begin with capped mints and redemptions, followed by a USDH/USDC spot pair. This strategic move highlights the growing competition in the stablecoin market, with Native Markets emphasizing credibility and validator alignment over yield promises made by other bidders.

Record ETF Inflows Challenge Fed's Influence on Markets

U.S.-listed ETFs have reached a record $12.19 trillion in assets, with August alone seeing inflows of $120.65 billion. This surge, particularly in equity and crypto-linked ETFs, is reshaping capital markets and challenging the Federal Reserve's traditional influence. Notably, Bitcoin and Ether ETFs now manage over $120 billion combined.

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust lead the charge, with Bitcoin ETFs accounting for over $100 billion, representing about 4% of Bitcoin's total market cap. The growing preference for ETFs among investors underscores a shift towards automated investment strategies, particularly from retirement accounts.

Corporate Bitcoin Accumulation Slows as Treasuries Add $5B

In August, tracked treasury entities added 47,718 BTC, valued at $5.2 billion, marking a significant slowdown from the previous month’s over 100,000 BTC. This decline in corporate accumulation may explain why Bitcoin's price rally to $123,000 could not be sustained, as it fell over 11.5% by month-end.

Despite the slowdown, public company holdings surpassed 1 million BTC for the first time, doubling since late 2024. High-profile purchases, such as KindlyMD's acquisition of 5,744 BTC, indicate continued institutional interest, albeit at a reduced pace.

Market Outlook: Fed Rate Cuts and Institutional Demand Drive BTC and ETH

Bitcoin's price has recently climbed to $116,000, buoyed by expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve. This anticipated easing is expected to enhance demand for risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, as traders position for potential market shifts.

Moreover, whale activity has been notable, with large holders accumulating significant amounts of BTC, which often precedes price surges. As institutional interest continues to grow, the market remains optimistic about the potential for further gains in the coming months.

Corporate & Capital Markets

Bitcoin Miners Transition to AI as Core Scientific Signs $3.5 Billion Deal

Core Scientific signed a $3.5 billion deal to host artificial intelligence (AI) data centers earlier this year, marking a shift from its focus on bitcoin mining to pursuing a steadier revenue stream. The company, along with others like Hut 8 and TeraWulf, is converting its operations from ASIC machines to GPU clusters to capitalize on AI's growth amid challenging crypto mining economics.

$421 Million in Old Bitcoin Moves Amid Miners Selling

In a significant market movement, $421 million in old coins have shifted, coinciding with miners selling their holdings. Despite these sell waves and a spike in Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), Bitcoin has continued to push forward.

Ben Samild Resigns as CIO of $168 Billion Australia Wealth Fund

Ben Samild has resigned from his position as Chief Investment Officer of Australia's Future Fund, which manages $168 billion, to take a role at ADIC.

Native Markets Wins Hyperliquid USDH Stablecoin Bid

Native Markets' USDH yield will be generally directed toward HYPE buybacks and efforts to grow USDH distribution, as the team eyes a test phase ‘within days’ following their successful bid.

Ecosystem Movers

Ethereum Stablecoin Supply Reaches New Heights

The total stablecoin supply on Ethereum has surged to a record $166 billion, marking a significant increase from $149.5 billion just a month prior. This growth underscores Ethereum's pivotal role as the settlement base for decentralized finance (DeFi) activities, highlighting the increasing reliance on stablecoins within the ecosystem. The rise in stablecoin supply is indicative of heightened market activity and investor confidence in DeFi platforms built on Ethereum.

PUMP Token Experiences Explosive Growth

PUMP, the native token of the Solana-based memecoin launchpad Pump.fun, has seen a remarkable rally, climbing nearly 25% in just 24 hours to reach an all-time high of $0.008456. This surge is accompanied by a significant increase in daily trading volume, which has exceeded $1.16 billion, reflecting a 132% rise. Such a dramatic uptick in both price and volume signals strong market interest and conviction among traders, suggesting that PUMP may continue to gain momentum as the week progresses.

Bitcoin Price Projections and Market Sentiment

As Bitcoin approaches a critical juncture, traders are advised to closely monitor its price behavior, especially with projections suggesting a potential rise to $115,000. Fundstrat's Tom Lee has made a bold prediction of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end, attributing this potential rally to favorable market momentum and anticipated changes in Federal Reserve policy. This optimistic outlook reflects a growing bullish sentiment within the cryptocurrency market, which could drive further investment and price appreciation in the coming months.

TRON's Strategic Fee Reduction

TRON has implemented a significant 60% reduction in transaction fees, a move that could reshape the landscape for stablecoin payments on its platform. This fee cut comes at a time when Ethereum has seen a decline in average transaction sizes, potentially making TRON a more attractive option for users and developers alike. The implications of this fee reduction may lead to increased adoption of TRON's ecosystem, particularly for stablecoin transactions.

On-Chain & Network

Solana's DeFi Total Value Locked Surges to $13.38 Billion

Solana's decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem has reached a total value locked (TVL) of $13.38 billion, marking an 18% increase over the past week. This surge in TVL is attributed to heightened user demand and significant inflows into the network, indicating a robust growth in decentralized lending, trading, and staking activities. The increase in TVL is seen as a positive sign for the Solana network, potentially influencing the price of its native token, SOL, which has already experienced a 25% price increase in the same timeframe.

Institutional Activity and Whale Accumulation Boost Solana's Market Position

Recent data highlights a significant rise in on-chain activity for Solana, with large investors, referred to as "whales," accumulating substantial positions in SOL. Notably, Multicoin Capital transferred over $680 million in SOL on-chain, while Galaxy Digital's recent $1.16 billion purchase of SOL has reinforced confidence in the token's liquidity and institutional support. This influx of institutional interest, combined with strong DeFi engagement, is expected to bolster Solana's market position and may lead to further price appreciation.

Shiba Inu's Shibarium Network Faces Security Challenges

Shiba Inu's Layer 2 network, Shibarium, experienced a significant security breach due to a flash loan attack that exploited its bridge to Ethereum. The attacker gained control over two-thirds of the validator nodes, enabling them to finalize fraudulent transactions and drain nearly $3 million in various tokens. In response, Shibarium developers paused staking and initiated security measures to mitigate the impact of the attack, highlighting ongoing challenges in maintaining network security and integrity.

Coinbase's Transparency Initiative on Digital Asset Listings

Coinbase has launched a public guide detailing its digital asset listing process, aiming to enhance transparency amid previous controversies regarding listing fees. The guide outlines a five-step evaluation process for projects seeking to list their tokens, emphasizing a merit-based approach. This initiative comes as Coinbase faces declining revenues and trading volumes, underscoring the importance of regulatory compliance and user trust in the exchange's operational framework.

Pakistan's Regulatory Framework for Virtual Asset Providers

Pakistan has initiated a licensing process for international crypto exchanges and virtual asset service providers through its newly established Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA). This move aims to create a stable regulatory environment for the burgeoning virtual asset market in Pakistan, which has over 40 million users and an estimated annual trading volume of $300 billion. The licensing framework is designed to attract trusted international firms while ensuring compliance with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing standards.

Macro & Policy

Vietnam Approves Pilot Cryptocurrency Exchanges Under Strict Regulations

Vietnam's government has approved pilot cryptocurrency exchanges as part of its new framework established by Resolution 05/2025. This resolution imposes strict capital and shareholder requirements, mandating that firms must hold at least $68 million (VND 10 trillion) in charter capital to qualify for participation in the regulated digital asset market. Additionally, 65% of the ownership must be held by local entities, which is expected to encourage local investment and compliance among financial institutions.

Bank of England Proposes Ownership Caps on Stablecoins Amid Industry Backlash

The Bank of England has proposed ownership caps for stablecoins, suggesting limits of between £10,000 and £20,000 ($13,600 to $27,200) for individuals and £10 million ($13.6 million) for businesses. This proposal has drawn criticism from the crypto sector, which argues that such restrictions could hinder growth and innovation in the UK, potentially putting the country at a disadvantage compared to other jurisdictions. The central bank's cautious approach stems from concerns that widespread stablecoin adoption could destabilize traditional banking systems.

OKX Expands Operations in Australia Targeting Retirement Market

OKX has launched a new platform in Australia aimed at self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs), which allows individuals and small groups more direct control over their retirement savings. This move signifies a growing interest in integrating cryptocurrency into retirement planning, despite the current limited role of crypto in pensions. The expansion reflects a broader trend of traditional financial institutions exploring crypto-related services.

Macroeconomic Context Influencing Bitcoin Price Predictions

Fundstrat's Tom Lee has projected that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by the end of the year, citing favorable market momentum and bullish sentiment as key drivers. This optimistic forecast is influenced by broader macroeconomic factors, including Federal Reserve policies that may impact investor behavior and market dynamics in the cryptocurrency space.

Thailand's Anti-Scam Crackdown Leads to Bank Account Freezes

In Thailand, the government has frozen three million bank accounts as part of an anti-scam initiative, raising discussions about the potential for Bitcoin as a safer alternative for individuals concerned about traditional banking systems. This situation highlights the growing interest in cryptocurrencies as a means of safeguarding assets amidst regulatory actions against fraud.

Security & Incidents

Nemo Protocol launches debt token program for $2.6 million exploit victims

Nemo plans to repay affected users by allocating recovered funds and portions of liquidity loans and investments into the redemption pool. The total amount involved in the exploit is $2.6 million.

Disclaimer: The content provided in this newsletter is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. You are encouraged to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Daily Signals and its affiliates are not responsible for any losses or damages resulting from reliance on the information presented.

© 2025 Daily Signals. All rights reserved.