Market Movement:

  • WLFI trades near $0.20, up 0.2% in 24 hours, 7.8% weekly increase, with a market cap of $5.4 billion and daily volume of approximately $480 million
  • DOGE surges nearly 6% to $0.261, with intraday lows at $0.245 and highs at $0.264, volume exceeding 1.1 billion, and a breakout above $0.253 resistance
  • Bitcoin trades around $115,244, briefly surpassing $116,000 amid bullish technical signals and a breakout, with altcoins like SOL, LINK, and DOGE posting larger gains

Key Events:

  • WLFI community approves a buyback-and-burn plan with over 1.3 billion votes (99.48%) in favor, ending September 19, involving fees from Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain, and Solana, with a $480 million daily trading volume
  • First U.S. Dogecoin ETF (ticker: DOJE) scheduled to debut on September 12, with whale accumulation exceeding 280 million DOGE ahead of listing
  • Two Hong Kong technicians arrested for stealing electricity to run covert Bitcoin mining operations in care homes for the disabled

Trading Signals:

  • DOGE volume exceeds 1.1 billion, nearly triple the average, indicating institutional flows ahead of ETF launch, with support at $0.245–$0.246 and resistance at $0.264
  • DOGE's breakout above $0.253 on high volume suggests strong momentum, with targets extending to $0.29–$0.50 if bullish continuation persists
  • Bitcoin's technical breakout and recent price action support a bullish outlook, with traders watching for sustained closes above key levels like $0.26 for DOGE and $116,000 for BTC

Narrative Shifts:

  • Market focus shifts from stagflation concerns to Fed rate cut expectations, with traders anticipating a 25 basis point cut to 4% on September 17, despite inflation at 2.9% and rising unemployment claims
  • Institutional interest in Solana highlighted by Novogratz calling it the “season of SOL,” emphasizing its suitability for financial markets, aligning with sector rotation into blockchain-based financial platforms
  • The crypto market is increasingly viewed as a long-term scarcity asset, with WLFI's deflationary plan reinforcing a narrative of value preservation amid macroeconomic uncertainty

Risk Alerts:

  • Market volatility remains elevated with intraday swings in DOGE and Bitcoin, and late-session retracements indicating caution in momentum sustainability
  • Regulatory risks are implied with the upcoming ETF debut and potential scrutiny of memecoin-related products, alongside ongoing security concerns such as the NPM exploit and mining thefts
  • Economic data showing signs of stagflation and rising unemployment pose macro risks that could impact broader market sentiment and crypto valuations

Opportunities:

  • Bullish momentum in DOGE ahead of ETF launch and institutional accumulation suggests potential for sustained upside toward $0.29–$0.30 resistance zones
  • The buyback-and-burn plan for WLFI indicates a long-term scarcity model, creating opportunities for value appreciation as circulating supply shrinks
  • Solana’s “season” and its tailored financial market infrastructure position SOL as a promising growth sector within blockchain-based financial services

Flows & Positioning

Dogecoin ETF Launch Sparks 20% Price Surge

Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a significant price increase of nearly 20% over the past week, reaching $0.2543. This surge is attributed to the anticipation surrounding the launch of the first U.S. Dogecoin ETF, which is expected to unlock substantial institutional demand.

Additionally, a publicly traded Dogecoin treasury has announced a $125 million acquisition of DOGE, further fueling bullish sentiment in the market. The ETF launch is seen as a pivotal moment that could propel DOGE to new heights, especially as macroeconomic conditions appear favorable for risk assets.

Institutional Inflows Drive Bitcoin ETF Activity

Bitcoin has seen a resurgence, hitting a two-week high above $114,000, driven by strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which recorded $757.1 million in a single day. This marks an eight-week high for ETF inflows, indicating renewed confidence among institutional investors.

As a result, the total inflows for U.S. ETFs in September have reached $1.39 billion, showcasing a robust appetite for Bitcoin amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. Analysts suggest that these inflows are a critical factor in Bitcoin's price stability and potential future gains.

Whale Movements and Market Dynamics

Recent whale activity has been notable, with a dormant Bitcoin whale moving $50 million worth of BTC after nearly 13 years. This transaction highlights a trend of long-term holders beginning to re-enter the market, potentially signaling a shift in sentiment.

In addition, significant trading volumes have been observed across various cryptocurrencies, with Dogecoin and XRP also attracting institutional interest. These movements suggest a growing confidence in the market as traders position themselves ahead of anticipated regulatory developments and macroeconomic shifts.

Market Outlook Amid Regulatory Developments

The broader crypto market is poised for potential growth as institutional adoption continues to rise, particularly with the upcoming decisions on various ETF applications. Analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin and Ethereum, citing strong accumulation patterns and favorable macro conditions.

As the market anticipates regulatory clarity, especially regarding Bitcoin and Dogecoin ETFs, traders are closely monitoring price movements. The current sentiment suggests that if these developments align positively, we could see significant upward momentum in the coming weeks.

Corporate & Capital Markets

Gemini Raises $425M in Heavily Oversubscribed IPO

Gemini Space Station’s initial public offering pulled in $425 million late Thursday, marking one of the strongest debuts for a digital asset platform in recent memory. The New York-based firm priced 15.2 million shares at $28 each, above its earlier guidance of $24 to $26. Demand outpaced supply by more than twentyfold, leading bankers to halt new orders ahead of pricing after the book filled at speed.

In a rare move, Gemini and its underwriters capped proceeds at $425 million, even though the sale could have raised up to $433 million without the limit. Nasdaq committed to purchase $50 million worth of stock in a private placement at the IPO price, and the offering gives Gemini a market value of just over $3 billion at the top of its pricing range.

Galaxy, Circle, and Bitfarms Lead Crypto Stock Gains

Crypto-related stocks including Galaxy Digital (GLXY), Circle Internet (CRCL), and Bitfarms (BITF) posted double-digit gains on Thursday as bitcoin (BTC) rose the highest since mid-August. Galaxy added 12%, while Bitfarms advanced another 18%, extending gains to more than 60% this week. Circle's stock rallied 16%, breaking a downtrend that saw the stock decline roughly 60% from its post-IPO peak.

Meanwhile, bitcoin treasury vehicles Metaplanet (3355) and Nakamoto (NAKA) declined 10% and 14%, respectively, even as bitcoin advanced toward $115,000.

Mogu Allocates Up to $20 Million to Digital Currencies

The board of Mogu approved a strategic allocation of up to $20 million of corporate assets to digital currencies, primarily BTC, ETH, and SOL. This decision has led to a significant increase in Mogu's stock price, which popped nearly 200% following the announcement.

Figure IPO Opens at $36 per Share, Valuation Surpasses $7 Billion

The blockchain lender Figure's shares had been priced at $25 for a $5.3 billion valuation, which is an increase compared to earlier estimates. The IPO opened at $36 per share, surpassing a valuation of $7 billion.

Figure Shares Jump 24% From IPO Price

Figure shares closed 24% above their IPO price at $31.11 on Thursday, indicating strong investor interest in crypto-native firms on Wall Street. The stock initially changed hands at $36 apiece, giving it a valuation of $6.58 billion.

The9 to Own 19% of $9BIT Token Supply

The9 Limited will be distributed 19% of the $9BIT token supply for its contribution to the $9BIT ecosystem. The $9BIT tokens are expected to be listed on at least one of the following crypto exchanges before December 31, 2025: Bybit, KuCoin, Gate, Coinbase, and Bitget.

Ecosystem Movers

Bitcoin Options Expiry and Market Sentiment

The upcoming $4.3 billion Bitcoin options expiry is poised to influence Bitcoin's price trajectory significantly. Analysts suggest that bullish sentiment prevails, particularly in light of recent weak jobs data and concerns regarding AI profitability, which could introduce volatility into the market. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $115,375, reflecting a 1.13% increase, and some analysts are speculating a potential rally to $120,000 as the expiry approaches. This sentiment is echoed by the broader crypto market, which has recently seen a resurgence, with Bitcoin briefly topping $116,000, indicating strong bullish momentum despite economic uncertainties.

Corporate Crypto Adoption: Mogu's Strategic Move

In a notable development for corporate crypto adoption, China-based fashion company Mogu has announced a $20 million investment in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. Following this announcement, Mogu's shares surged by 76%, indicating strong market enthusiasm for the company's foray into digital assets. This strategic allocation not only reflects growing institutional interest in cryptocurrencies but also highlights the potential for traditional companies to leverage crypto investments as part of their financial strategies.

Altcoin Market Dynamics and Emerging Trends

The altcoin market is showing signs of acceleration, with trading volumes shifting significantly towards altcoins, which now account for 37.2% of the total trading volume. This shift comes as the overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies climbs back above $4 trillion. Analysts are optimistic about the potential for altcoins to outperform, especially as new projects like Maxi Doge ($MAXI) gain traction, drawing in significant investment and community engagement. Additionally, Solana is being highlighted as a key player, with predictions of a new all-time high by the end of 2025, driven by corporate accumulation and favorable market conditions.

On-Chain & Network

Macro & Policy

U.S. Labor Market Weakness Fuels Economic Concerns Amid Inflation

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data revealed a headline inflation rate of 2.9% and a core rate of 3.1%, both exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Despite this, the focus shifted to rising jobless claims, which soared to 263,000—marking the highest level in nearly four years and surpassing the previous week's 236,000 and the forecast of 235,000. This labor market weakness has led to increased fears of a potential recession and stagflation, as noted by Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch.

Hong Kong Central Bank Proposes Easing Crypto Capital Requirements

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is drafting plans to ease capital requirements for banks holding cryptocurrencies, aiming to clarify guidance on capital regulation for crypto assets. This initiative is part of a broader effort to solidify Hong Kong's position as a global crypto hub and is expected to be implemented early next year. The proposed changes could enhance the regulatory framework for banks and encourage further crypto adoption in the region.

Brazil Plans to Implement VASP Regulation by 2026

The Central Bank of Brazil announced its intention to start applying Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) regulations by 2026. The bank emphasized that while the rules will allow for operational freedom, they should not be overly ambitious. This regulatory framework aims to provide clearer guidelines for the crypto industry in Brazil, potentially enhancing investor confidence and market stability.

Institutional Interest in Ethereum Grows Amid Market Dynamics

BitMine Immersion Technologies has significantly increased its Ethereum holdings by $200 million, bringing its total to approximately 2.1 million ETH, valued at $9.2 billion. This surge in institutional investment reflects broader confidence in the cryptocurrency market, particularly in Ethereum, as institutional inflows totaled 273,300 ETH last week. Such developments indicate a growing institutional appetite for digital assets, which may influence market dynamics positively.

Tokenized U.S. Treasuries Reach $7.45 Billion as Market Innovations Advance

Tokenized U.S. Treasuries have achieved a new all-time high of $7.45 billion as of August 27, 2025, reflecting a threefold increase year-over-year. This growth is driven by major asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity, who are developing on-chain fixed income products. The rise of tokenized treasuries indicates a shift in how traditional financial instruments are accessed and traded, potentially attracting more capital into the crypto space.

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